Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

After reading parts of Insurance in Asia written by McKinsey veterans and tossing ideas with our brokers, we developed an interest in the insurance industry, which still has room to grow in Thailand due to low penetration. State-owned TIP or Dhipaya, the number two non-life insurer, looks most compelling in terms of valuation. We prefer BLA to BKI, its non-life sister company, noting that BKI derives the bulk of its value from a hospital stock it holds rather than underwriting insurance. Finally, THREL, the life reinsurer, may be a good way to diversify in the sector.

After reading parts of Insurance in Asia written by McKinsey veterans and tossing ideas with our brokers, we developed an interest in the insurance industry, which still has room to grow in Thailand due to low penetration. State-owned TIP or Dhipaya, the number two non-life insurer, looks most compelling in terms of valuation. We prefer BLA to BKI, its non-life sister company, noting that BKI derives the bulk of its value from a hospital stock it holds rather than underwriting insurance. Finally, THREL, the life reinsurer, may be a good way to diversify in the sector.

Sathorn Series 4: Reading McKinsey, Investing Insurance

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

Thailand

Dhipaya Insurance Public Company Limited provides non-life insurance including fire, marine and cargo, automotive, and miscellaneous insurance.

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Dhipaya Insurance Pub (TIP TB)

Sathorn Series 4: Reading McKinsey, Investing Insurance

After reading parts of Insurance in Asia written by McKinsey veterans and tossing ideas with our brokers, we developed an interest in the insurance...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)