Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25621:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Mining (EDV CN)</a> made a hostile bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centamin-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21870:1" rel="noopener">Centamin PLC (CEY LN)</a> in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of Endeavour for every share of CEY or 126.27 GBp/share is a 13% premium to Centamin’s last close price of 112.20 GBp/share. Centamin’s board has rejected tender as it was not offering enough value to its shareholders. We believe that EDV’s offer for CEY is opportunistic and the shareholders of CEY should wait for better terms as the present offer is just a 5% premium on the last 3 months' average price.  CEY is trading at 4.6x FY20 EBITDA, 1.5x book and below its peers on EV/oz of gold resources.

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) made a hostile bid for Centamin PLC (CEY LN) in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of Endeavour for every share of CEY or 126.27 GBp/share is a 13% premium to Centamin’s last close price of 112.20 GBp/share. Centamin’s board has rejected tender as it was not offering enough value to its shareholders. We believe that EDV’s offer for CEY is opportunistic and the shareholders of CEY should wait for better terms as the present offer is just a 5% premium on the last 3 months' average price.  CEY is trading at 4.6x FY20 EBITDA, 1.5x book and below its peers on EV/oz of gold resources.

Endeavour Bid for Centamin Gold: An Opportunistic Bid

Commodities

we expand on our previous note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-is-it-the-beginning-of-new-golden-era-or-end-of-the-bull-run" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12832" rel="noopener">Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?</a> Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock indicates the following:<ul>
<li>Gold stocks and gold commodity had no returns in FY18,</li>
<li>YTD FY19 gold stocks returns were superior compared to gold commodity,</li>
<li>Our portfolio of 11 gold producers returned 55% YTD with a Sharpe ratio of ~2.</li>
<li>Given the volatility in markets, we believe that ‘flight to safety’ will continue in short to mid-term, supporting gold prices.</li>
</ul>

we expand on our previous note Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run? Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock indicates the following:
Gold stocks and gold commodity had no returns in FY18,
YTD FY19 gold stocks returns were superior compared to gold commodity,
Our portfolio of 11 gold producers returned 55% YTD with a Sharpe ratio of ~2.
Given the volatility in markets, we believe that ‘flight to safety’ will continue in short to mid-term, supporting gold prices.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms evident in many of the gold mining stocks, and view this as a timely entry point to add exposure to the gold miners.  In today’s report we highlight numerous actionable names, many of which have dual-listings in the U.S. and Canada.

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms evident in many of the gold mining stocks, and view this as a timely entry point to add exposure to the gold miners.  In today’s report we highlight numerous actionable names, many of which have dual-listings in the U.S. and Canada.

Canada

Detour Gold Corporation explores for and produces gold in Canada.

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Detour Gold (DGC CN)

Endeavour Bid for Centamin Gold: An Opportunistic Bid

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) made a hostile bid for Centamin PLC (CEY LN) in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Gold: Gold Stocks Making a Comeback?

we expand on our previous note Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run? Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new...

Vermilion Research

Return of the Gold Trade: Buy the Miners

With gold prices moving higher, the gold miners are likely to have outsized gains. We are seeing widespread price and relative strength bottoms...

Vermilion Research

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