Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Economic slowdown, China lockdown and more competition has hit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/align-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2817:1" rel="noopener">Align Technology (ALGN US)</a> share performance. Quantity and quality of innovations suggests a solid moat that should help a comeback.</li>
<li>ALGN has dominant leadership in digital design and mass custom manufacture of clear aligner orthodontics. A return of demand should lead to strong upside. </li>
<li>Dentistry has seen significant new technologies we list the top fifteen innovators in the sector. Align is primarily in the narrow business of straightening teeth, but dominates the space.</li>
</ul>


Economic slowdown, China lockdown and more competition has hit Align Technology (ALGN US) share performance. Quantity and quality of innovations suggests a solid moat that should help a comeback.
ALGN has dominant leadership in digital design and mass custom manufacture of clear aligner orthodontics. A return of demand should lead to strong upside. 
Dentistry has seen significant new technologies we list the top fifteen innovators in the sector. Align is primarily in the narrow business of straightening teeth, but dominates the space.


Align Technology - Very Well Positioned when Demand Returns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>On a constant-currency basis, Q3 revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/align-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2817:1" rel="noopener">Align Technology (ALGN US)</a> was reduced by 3% sequentially and 6% year-over-year, one of the largest quarterly foreign exchange impacts.</li>
<li>Weak consumer sentiment is taking a toll on Invisalign shipment, with adult case starts plunging 11% q/q and 16% y/y to 377K. Invisalign ASPs nosedived to nine-quarter low of $1,150.  </li>
<li>Amid increasing competition and macroeconomic headwinds, long-term model of 20–30% revenue growth is hard to achieve. The company is also expected to miss 2022 operating margin target of 20%.</li>
</ul>


On a constant-currency basis, Q3 revenue of Align Technology (ALGN US) was reduced by 3% sequentially and 6% year-over-year, one of the largest quarterly foreign exchange impacts.
Weak consumer sentiment is taking a toll on Invisalign shipment, with adult case starts plunging 11% q/q and 16% y/y to 377K. Invisalign ASPs nosedived to nine-quarter low of $1,150.  
Amid increasing competition and macroeconomic headwinds, long-term model of 20–30% revenue growth is hard to achieve. The company is also expected to miss 2022 operating margin target of 20%.


Align Technology (ALGN US): Q3 Result Not Aligned with Consensus; Outlook Remains Cloudy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/align-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2817:1" rel="noopener">Align Technology (ALGN US)</a> is better investment idea than its Chinese competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK),</a> due to its larger global scale of operation, early mover advantage, and cheaper valuation.    </li>
<li>Align Technology is well-positioned for 20%+ revenue and earnings growth through 2024, driven by large and underpenetrated TAM of 19 million annual ortho starts.</li>
<li>Align Technology shares are trading at a steep discount to Angelalign Technology shares. Price erosion due to the increasing competition remains the key risks for both the companies.</li>
</ul>



Align Technology (ALGN US) is better investment idea than its Chinese competitor Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), due to its larger global scale of operation, early mover advantage, and cheaper valuation.    
Align Technology is well-positioned for 20%+ revenue and earnings growth through 2024, driven by large and underpenetrated TAM of 19 million annual ortho starts.
Align Technology shares are trading at a steep discount to Angelalign Technology shares. Price erosion due to the increasing competition remains the key risks for both the companies.


Align Technology (ALGN US) Vs. Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): Which One Is Better Investment

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Angelalign Technology  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (AAT HK)</a> is a leading clear aligner treatment solution provider in China. It is the second-largest player accounting for 41.0% market share in 2020 as measured by case shipments, according to CIC. </p><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$147-173 per share, Angelalign will have a market cap of HK$24.4-28.7 million ($3.1-3.7 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the gross proceeds are $347 million.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/angelalign-ipo-initiation-if-tooth-be-told" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51881" rel="noopener">Angelalign IPO Initiation: If Tooth Be Told</a>, we stated that Angelalign is ideally positioned to benefit from China's clear aligner market opportunity due to its high market share, strong growth, rising margins and prodigious cash generation. We concluded that Angelalign is worth a look.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>On a relative valuation basis, Angelalign looks attractive to its peers on a PEG basis but expensive on a P/E basis. Our base-case DCF value is HK$171.83 per share which is a 7% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range. Due to the limited upside to our DCF valuation, we think that the IPO price range is full. Overall, while we like Angelalign's fundamentals, due to the full IPO price range and the current weak market sentiment on IPOs, we are inclined to wait on the sidelines for a more attractive entry point.   </p></div>

Angelalign Technology (AAT HK) is a leading clear aligner treatment solution provider in China. It is the second-largest player accounting for 41.0% market share in 2020 as measured by case shipments, according to CIC. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$147-173 per share, Angelalign will have a market cap of HK$24.4-28.7 million ($3.1-3.7 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the gross proceeds are $347 million.In Angelalign IPO Initiation: If Tooth Be Told, we stated that Angelalign is ideally positioned to benefit from China's clear aligner market opportunity due to its high market share, strong growth, rising margins and prodigious cash generation. We concluded that Angelalign is worth a look.On a relative valuation basis, Angelalign looks attractive to its peers on a PEG basis but expensive on a P/E basis. Our base-case DCF value is HK$171.83 per share which is a 7% upside to the mid-point of the IPO price range. Due to the limited upside to our DCF valuation, we think that the IPO price range is full. Overall, while we like Angelalign's fundamentals, due to the full IPO price range and the current weak market sentiment on IPOs, we are inclined to wait on the sidelines for a more attractive entry point.   

<div><div id="ember3974"><div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (AAT HK)</a> is a leading clear aligner treatment solution provider in China. It is the second-largest player accounting for 41.0% market share in 2020 as measured by case shipments, according to CIC. Angelalign is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. </div>
<div></div>
</div></div></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/angelalign-ipo-initiation-if-tooth-be-told" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51881" rel="noopener">Angelalign IPO Initiation: If Tooth Be Told</a>, we stated that Angelalign is ideally positioned to benefit from this market opportunity due to high market share, strong growth, rising margins and prodigious cash generation. We concluded that Angelalign is worth a look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Angelalign's potential valuation range. </p></div></div></div>



Angelalign Technology (AAT HK) is a leading clear aligner treatment solution provider in China. It is the second-largest player accounting for 41.0% market share in 2020 as measured by case shipments, according to CIC. Angelalign is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. 

In Angelalign IPO Initiation: If Tooth Be Told, we stated that Angelalign is ideally positioned to benefit from this market opportunity due to high market share, strong growth, rising margins and prodigious cash generation. We concluded that Angelalign is worth a look. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Angelalign's potential valuation range. 

United States

DENTSPLY International Inc. manufactures and distributes dental supplies on a worldwide basis.  The Company's products include dental prosthetics, endodontic instruments, dental sealants, ultrasonic scalers, dental x-ray equipment, and intraoral cameras.  DENTSPLY also provides impression materials, orthodontic appliances, and dental operatory software systems, and other dental products.

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Dentsply International (XRAY US)

Align Technology - Very Well Positioned when Demand Returns

Decline in earnings has driven the sell-off, but with patience and tolerance for volatility ALGN's innovation dominance should lead to good long...

Pyari Menon

Align Technology (ALGN US): Q3 Result Not Aligned with Consensus; Outlook Remains Cloudy

With ~50% revenue from international market, Align’s Q3 result was significantly impacted by unfavorable Fx. Macroeconomic uncertainty and weak...

Tina Banerjee

Align Technology (ALGN US) Vs. Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): Which One Is Better Investment

This insight has analyzed why Align Technology is a better investment idea than Angelalign Technology and thrown light on former’s fundamental...

Tina Banerjee

Angelalign IPO: Valuation Insights

While we like Angelalign's fundamentals, due to the full IPO price range and the current weak market sentiment on IPOs, we are inclined to wait on...

Arun George

Angelalign IPO: Valuation First-Look

Angelalign is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the...

Arun George

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