HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  </li>
</ul>


With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.</li>
<li>It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.</li>
<li>One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.</li>
</ul>


On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.
It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.
One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.


Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>The US Department of Transport (DOT) has ordered the termination of Delta and Aeromexico's joint venture from October 2024 due to access restrictions in Mexico City.</li>
<li>This follows the (unrelated) US blocking of JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines on the grounds that it would negatively impact consumers.</li>
<li>Each case is different, but the US has previously voiced concerns regarding Korean Air's planned merger with Asiana, and the bar continues to rise for M&amp;A/JV approval globally.</li>
</ul>


The US Department of Transport (DOT) has ordered the termination of Delta and Aeromexico's joint venture from October 2024 due to access restrictions in Mexico City.
This follows the (unrelated) US blocking of JetBlue's planned acquisition of Spirit Airlines on the grounds that it would negatively impact consumers.
Each case is different, but the US has previously voiced concerns regarding Korean Air's planned merger with Asiana, and the bar continues to rise for M&amp;A/JV approval globally.


Korean Air - Another US Example Of A Ruling Against Consolidation Raises Asiana Merger Questions

<ul>
<li>On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. </li>
<li>The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). </li>
<li>As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.</li>
</ul>


On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. 
The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). 
As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.


Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

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Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Today I would like to show you some useful charts that could give you potential ideas for your next investment. </li><li>Bitcoin: the breakout we were waiting for! After a big drawdown, Bitcoin finally broken the descending trendline.</li><li>The most important cryptocurrency is 35% below its highs, but from a technical point of view, the situation looks more constructive after the breakout.</li></ul>

Today I would like to show you some useful charts that could give you potential ideas for your next investment. Bitcoin: the breakout we were waiting for! After a big drawdown, Bitcoin finally broken the descending trendline.The most important cryptocurrency is 35% below its highs, but from a technical point of view, the situation looks more constructive after the breakout.

United States

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers, freight, and mail over a network of routes throughout the United States and internationally.

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Delta Air Lines (DAL US)

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air....

Douglas Kim

Korean Air - Another US Example Of A Ruling Against Consolidation Raises Asiana Merger Questions

New perspective on the US's approach to considering M&A/joint ventures which is relevant to consider the US's ultimate verdict on Korean Air/Asiana...

Neil Glynn

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Charts to Watch

Today I would like to show you some useful charts that could give you potential ideas for your next investment. Bitcoin: the breakout we were...

Market Radar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

​As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air....

Douglas Kim

Korean Air - Another US Example Of A Ruling Against Consolidation Raises Asiana Merger Questions

New perspective on the US's approach to considering M&A/joint ventures which is relevant to consider the US's ultimate verdict on Korean Air/Asiana...

Neil Glynn

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

​Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Charts to Watch

Today I would like to show you some useful charts that could give you potential ideas for your next investment. Bitcoin: the breakout we were...

Market Radar

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...