Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

<ul>
<li>Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.</li>
<li>WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.</li>
</ul>


Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.
WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.


S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Despite ongoing supply issues, Deere increased production rates in the past quarter, which led to a 25% increase in net sales.</li><li>The demand-driven growth in the construction and forestry industries also contributed to the division's impressive success in the third quarter.</li><li>Furthermore, because of ongoing supply issues that result in manufacturing inefficiencies, overhead expenses also increase over time.</li></ul>

Despite ongoing supply issues, Deere increased production rates in the past quarter, which led to a 25% increase in net sales.The demand-driven growth in the construction and forestry industries also contributed to the division's impressive success in the third quarter.Furthermore, because of ongoing supply issues that result in manufacturing inefficiencies, overhead expenses also increase over time.

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deere's share price underperformed the broader market, in spite of the company's strong results.</li>
<li>The expectations for the next half year are still highly optimistic and valuation seems to reflect that.</li>
<li>Unfortunately, these results are unlikely to be sustained over the medium-term and valuation is at risk.</li>
</ul>


Deere's share price underperformed the broader market, in spite of the company's strong results.
The expectations for the next half year are still highly optimistic and valuation seems to reflect that.
Unfortunately, these results are unlikely to be sustained over the medium-term and valuation is at risk.


Deere: Underperforming The Market Is The Most Likely Scenario Ahead

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Higher ag prices should leave farmers with more cash and a higher propensity to spend. Companies making Tech heavy farm machinery and modified seeds with positive traits should benefit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deere-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12207:1" rel="noopener">Deere &amp; Co (DE US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnh-global-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28200:1" rel="noopener">CNH Global NV (CNH US)</a> dominate innovations in machinery followed by Agco Corp (AGCO US). Dawn Equipment is a small but interesting private player.</li>
<li>In seeds and tissue genetic engineering Corteva Inc (CTVA US) is best positioned and has been out innovating its only real competitor Bayer AG (BAYN GY) significantly in recent years.</li>
</ul>


Higher ag prices should leave farmers with more cash and a higher propensity to spend. Companies making Tech heavy farm machinery and modified seeds with positive traits should benefit. 

Deere &amp; Co (DE US) &amp; CNH Global NV (CNH US) dominate innovations in machinery followed by Agco Corp (AGCO US). Dawn Equipment is a small but interesting private player.
In seeds and tissue genetic engineering Corteva Inc (CTVA US) is best positioned and has been out innovating its only real competitor Bayer AG (BAYN GY) significantly in recent years.


Rising Agri Prices Might Benefit Machinery and Seed Ecosystem. We Highlight the Dominant Innovators

United States

Deere & Company manufactures and distributes a range of agricultural, construction and forestry, and commercial and consumer equipment.  The Company supplies replacement parts for its own products and for those of other manufacturers. Deere also provides product and parts financing services. Deere and Company extends its services and products worldwide.

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Deere & Co (DE US)

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on $SPX, $293 on the $QQQ $NDX, and $177-178 on the $IWM. WTI crude oil is breaking below $85;...

Vermilion Research

Deere & Co: Major Drivers

Despite ongoing supply issues, Deere increased production rates in the past quarter, which led to a 25% increase in net sales. The demand-driven...

Baptista Research

Deere: Underperforming The Market Is The Most Likely Scenario Ahead

Deere's share price underperformed the broader market, in spite of the company's strong results. The expectations for the next half year are still...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Rising Agri Prices Might Benefit Machinery and Seed Ecosystem. We Highlight the Dominant Innovators

AgTech innovations will be needed to alleviate the pressures in food system. We identify the leaders in Farm Machinery and Seed Genetics Technologies

Pyari Menon

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