India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deepak Nitrite spending INR 9000 crore on capex for backward integration and forward integration along with focus on import substitution with foray into domain like Polycarbonates and Fluorination</li>
<li>Deepak Nitrite promoters have been continuously increasing stake by 5% in the last few years and recently added 36 crore worth of equities</li>
<li>The most interesting thesis building operationally is the revival of its key chemical spreads</li>
</ul>


Deepak Nitrite spending INR 9000 crore on capex for backward integration and forward integration along with focus on import substitution with foray into domain like Polycarbonates and Fluorination
Deepak Nitrite promoters have been continuously increasing stake by 5% in the last few years and recently added 36 crore worth of equities
The most interesting thesis building operationally is the revival of its key chemical spreads


The Beat Ideas: What Makes Deepak Nitrite an Interesting Bet on Chemical Revival Theme

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 8% QoQ while it could fall by 3.8% YoY in 4Q</li><li>Prices of the chemical are showing a mixed bag on a sequential basis</li><li>As per management, the domestic inventory destocking is over while global inventory destocking will continue for the next two quarters.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 8% QoQ while it could fall by 3.8% YoY in 4QPrices of the chemical are showing a mixed bag on a sequential basisAs per management, the domestic inventory destocking is over while global inventory destocking will continue for the next two quarters.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chemicals (Q4FY24 Results Preview): On a recovery path

<ul><li>We had the opportunity to interact with Mr Manish Shah, Managing Director of OC Specialities Pvt Ltd</li><li>The company operates in two primary businesses: Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation (CDMO) and distribution</li><li>Within the CDMO segment, the company offers end-to-end coordination ranging from early-stage development to commercial production</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had the opportunity to interact with Mr Manish Shah, Managing Director of OC Specialities Pvt LtdThe company operates in two primary businesses: Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation (CDMO) and distributionWithin the CDMO segment, the company offers end-to-end coordination ranging from early-stage development to commercial productionContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chemicals: Opportunities galore for Indian CDMO players

<ul><li>Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segment</li><li>Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin</li><li>Volume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segmentQ3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA marginVolume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

<ul><li>Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 4.6% QoQ while it could fall by 5.7% YoY in 3Q.</li><li>Chemical prices have shown a sharp correction in 3QFY24 as against product prices in 3QFY23 while these prices are showing a mixed bag on a sequential basis.</li><li>As per the management of chemical companies, the inventory destocking by agrochemical companies may be coming to an end.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 4.6% QoQ while it could fall by 5.7% YoY in 3Q.Chemical prices have shown a sharp correction in 3QFY24 as against product prices in 3QFY23 while these prices are showing a mixed bag on a sequential basis.As per the management of chemical companies, the inventory destocking by agrochemical companies may be coming to an end.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chemicals (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Getting Better

India

Godrej Industries Limited manufactures a variety of specialty chemical products like Alpha Olefin Sulphonate, Fatty Acids, Glycerin and Fatty Alcohols. The company also manufactures edible oils and processed foods and has finance and investment activities as part of their operations.

Bayer Cropscience Ltd. is involved in cropscience in the area of crop protection , non agricultural pest-control, seeds and plant biotechnology.

Coromandel International Ltd. manufactures fertilizers and pesticides.  The Company produces both chemical and organic fertilizers, insecticides, fungicides, herbcides, and plant biostimulant.

Tata Chemicals Ltd. manufactures salt and salt by-products, alkalies and heavy chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers and agro-chemicals. The Company's salt products include common salt, pure salt and gypsum salt.  Heavy chemicals include soda ash, caustic soda and hydrochloric acid. Tata Chemicals' pharmaceuticals include bromides of ammonium, sodium, potassium and ethyl.

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

Finolex Industries Limited manufactures PVC pipes and fittings, which are sold primarily to businesses in the agricultural sector.  The Company also manufactures PVC resins, which are used as raw materials for PVC pipes and fittings.

Castrol (India) Limited manufactures and markets automotive and industrial lubricants and specialty products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, greases and brake fluids. The Company also manufactures cable filling compounds, jellies, waxes and other items.

Navin Fluorine International Limited manufactures fluorochemicals. The Company produces benzotrifuoride derivatives, fluoro benzene derivatives, fluoro toluene derivatives, and aliphatic fluoro compounds.

Vinati Organics Limited produces organic intermediates and monomers.

PI Industries Limited manufactures agricultural and fine chemicals, and polymers. The Company produces fine chemicals; crop protection, plant nutrients, and seeds; and engineering plastics for use in the automobile, electrical, and home appliances industries.

MITSUBISHI GAS CHEMICAL COMPANY, INC. produces chemical products such as xylene and methanol.  The Company also manufactures engineering plastics and specialty chemicals.

NOF CORPORATION is a diversified chemical producer whose products include processed oil/fats, explosives and other chemical products. The Company has manufacturing/sales subsidiaries in US, Indonesia and China.

Orica Limited is a diversified manufacturing company.  The Company produces industrial and specialty chemicals, polyethylene, surface coatings for vehicles, food and beverage flavoring and fragrances, packaging and appliances. The Company also supplies explosive and blasting services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries.

Incitec Pivot Limited is a fertilizer manufacturer and supplier, and also a supplier for explosives products and services. The Company has operations throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico and Australia.

Resonac Holdings Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces synthetic resins, petrochemical products, inorganics, and other related products. Resonac Holdings also produces ceramics, metals, carbon, electronic materials, and other products.

Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. manufactures and markets a variety of chemical products. The Company's products include ethylene, propylene and other petrochemicals, basic chemicals, synthetic resins, and fine chemicals.  The Company operates worldwide.

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of dyes including high intensity and rapid-dying Lonsperse Dye. The Company sells its products domestically and exports worldwide.

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

Quaker Chemical Corporation produces, develops, and markets custom-formulated chemical specialty products.  The Company also provides fluid management services for manufacturers around the world, primarily in the steel, automotive, and can industries.

Huntsman Corporation manufactures differentiated and commodity chemical products.  The Company markets a broad range of chemical products and formulations to a diversified group of consumer and industrial customers. Huntsman's products are used in a range of applications, including those in adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, and consumer products.

Zhejiang Huafeng Spandex Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spandex products.

Deepak Nitrite Limited manufactures chemicals and fertilizers. The Company's products include sodium nitrite/nitrate, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate, and Hydroxylamine Sulphate.  Deepak Nitrite's other two divisions manufacture dyes & dyestuffs and nitro aromatics.

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Deepak Nitrite (DN IN)

The Beat Ideas: What Makes Deepak Nitrite an Interesting Bet on Chemical Revival Theme

Deepak Nitrite investing heavily in capex for integration, entering newer domains, promoters increasing stake, and revival in key chemical spreads...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Chemicals (Q4FY24 Results Preview): On a recovery path

Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 8% QoQ while it could fall by 3.8% YoY in 4Q. Prices of the chemical are showing a mixed...

HDFC Securities

Chemicals: Opportunities galore for Indian CDMO players

We had the opportunity to interact with Mr Manish Shah, Managing Director of OC Specialities Pvt Ltd. The company operates in two primary businesses

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin

HDFC Securities

Chemicals (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Getting Better

Chemical prices have shown a sharp correction in 3QFY24 as against product prices in 3QFY23 while these prices are showing a mixed bag on a...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: What Makes Deepak Nitrite an Interesting Bet on Chemical Revival Theme

​Deepak Nitrite investing heavily in capex for integration, entering newer domains, promoters increasing stake, and revival in key chemical spreads...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Chemicals (Q4FY24 Results Preview): On a recovery path

Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 8% QoQ while it could fall by 3.8% YoY in 4Q. Prices of the chemical are showing a mixed...

HDFC Securities

Chemicals: Opportunities galore for Indian CDMO players

We had the opportunity to interact with Mr Manish Shah, Managing Director of OC Specialities Pvt Ltd. The company operates in two primary businesses

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin

HDFC Securities

Chemicals (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Getting Better

Chemical prices have shown a sharp correction in 3QFY24 as against product prices in 3QFY23 while these prices are showing a mixed bag on a...

HDFC Securities

Deepak Nitrite investing heavily in capex for integration, entering newer domains, promoters increasing stake, and revival in key chemical spreads...