Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Late Friday, NHK carried a <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200918/k10012624861000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">story</a> saying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a> would launch a Tender Offer and as a result would own a 50.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a> next month. An hour and 15mins later the Nikkei came out with a <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO64055880Y0A910C2TJC000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">story</a> saying DCM was looking to do a TOB on Shimachu, later saying that they were in the final stages of decision. Both companies released press releases to the Exchange (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/8184/tdnet/1884205/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shimachu</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/3050/tdnet/1884206/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DCM</a>) saying that while their company was talking with others, including the other named, in order to improve their growth strategy, nothing had been decided.</p><p><em>Also on Friday, DCM released a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/3050/tdnet/1884067/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast upgrade</a> to their H1 earnings (H1 ended 31 Aug), with revenues up 10.4% vs forecast at ¥252.9bn, OP +68.9% vs plan at ¥22.3bn, and net +75.6% at ¥15.1bn. H2 forecasts were left completely unchanged, as if all the gains made in the first half evaporated August 31 and everything goes back to the previous plan. </em></p><p>DCM Holdings was formed in 2006 when the home center chains of Homac Corp., based in Sapporo, Kahma Co. in Aichi Prefecture, and Daiki Co. based in Matsuyama, Ehime Prefecture decided to form a holding company. Since then DCM has absorbed other brands such as Sanwa (in Aomori and northern Japan) in 2015, and Kuroganeya (in Yamanashi) in 2016, and has a business and capital alliance with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)</a> in Chiba. The five subsidiaries are currently fully separate, but the plan (as of a board meeting in December 2019) is to integrate all five subsidiaries into a single company by end-March 2021. All told, DCM operates 670+ stores nationwide (37 prefectures).</p><p>Shimachu has its roots as a furniture maker in Saitama Prefecture just north of Tokyo. Most stores are now in Saitama, non-central Tokyo, and Kanagawa, with a few in Chiba and a few stores in Kansai. It runs both furniture stores which resemble slightly homier versions of IKEA and also home centers under a variety of brands (they also have a pet supplies chain). Their two basic "brands" of shops called Shimachu and Home's.</p><p>This will build scale, and it is the kind of thing which leads to a merger in later years. That scale and consolidation is likely to continue because the sector is low-growth at best, and if there is growth it is probably in Tokyo. The largest two players currently are privately-held Cainz (which took over the top spot last year, for the first time) and DCM (formerly the long-time number one) which each hold about 10-11% of industry revenue, and neither see revenues dominated by a Tokyo metro area presence. </p><p>Even before the onset of COVID-19, Japanese homeowners had started spending more time and money upgrading existing dwellings and furnishings in a quality-of-life trade, reducing the turnover of home rebuilding for a better quality home life in existing premises. Since the onset of COVID-19 and more WFH, there has been more emphasis on making the living/working space more comfortable and homecenters and <em>especially</em> furnishings stores have done well. The recent purchase of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-viva" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24060:1" rel="noopener">LIXIL VIVA (3564 JP)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-sakamoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10395:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lixil-viva-3564-jp-takeout-tender-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40178" rel="noopener">Lixil Viva (3564 JP) Takeout Tender Offer</a>) is but one example (and as noted in the insight, Lixil Viva is Tokyo-dominant in its revenue mix, Arcland runs the <em>Musashi</em> chain in Niigata).  This new deal is not surprising. The target is an "easy" one as it is cash-rich and not overly expensive. It also has some noisy shareholders on the register so getting something done earlier rather than later probably suits Shimachu too.</p><p>We have no other details about the deal (i.e. no noise about price) yet. This announcement may have "leaked" in a way that is unwelcome, though we may have news by the time trading starts on Wednesday. DCM is scheduled to report H1 results on 29 Sep. Shimachu is scheduled to report full-year earnings on 9 October. </p><p>As a trade, it certainly merits a look. </p>

Late Friday, NHK carried a story saying that Dcm Holdings (3050 JP) would launch a Tender Offer and as a result would own a 50.1% stake in Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) next month. An hour and 15mins later the Nikkei came out with a story saying DCM was looking to do a TOB on Shimachu, later saying that they were in the final stages of decision. Both companies released press releases to the Exchange (Shimachu, DCM) saying that while their company was talking with others, including the other named, in order to improve their growth strategy, nothing had been decided.Also on Friday, DCM released a forecast upgrade to their H1 earnings (H1 ended 31 Aug), with revenues up 10.4% vs forecast at ¥252.9bn, OP +68.9% vs plan at ¥22.3bn, and net +75.6% at ¥15.1bn. H2 forecasts were left completely unchanged, as if all the gains made in the first half evaporated August 31 and everything goes back to the previous plan. DCM Holdings was formed in 2006 when the home center chains of Homac Corp., based in Sapporo, Kahma Co. in Aichi Prefecture, and Daiki Co. based in Matsuyama, Ehime Prefecture decided to form a holding company. Since then DCM has absorbed other brands such as Sanwa (in Aomori and northern Japan) in 2015, and Kuroganeya (in Yamanashi) in 2016, and has a business and capital alliance with Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) in Chiba. The five subsidiaries are currently fully separate, but the plan (as of a board meeting in December 2019) is to integrate all five subsidiaries into a single company by end-March 2021. All told, DCM operates 670+ stores nationwide (37 prefectures).Shimachu has its roots as a furniture maker in Saitama Prefecture just north of Tokyo. Most stores are now in Saitama, non-central Tokyo, and Kanagawa, with a few in Chiba and a few stores in Kansai. It runs both furniture stores which resemble slightly homier versions of IKEA and also home centers under a variety of brands (they also have a pet supplies chain). Their two basic "brands" of shops called Shimachu and Home's.This will build scale, and it is the kind of thing which leads to a merger in later years. That scale and consolidation is likely to continue because the sector is low-growth at best, and if there is growth it is probably in Tokyo. The largest two players currently are privately-held Cainz (which took over the top spot last year, for the first time) and DCM (formerly the long-time number one) which each hold about 10-11% of industry revenue, and neither see revenues dominated by a Tokyo metro area presence. Even before the onset of COVID-19, Japanese homeowners had started spending more time and money upgrading existing dwellings and furnishings in a quality-of-life trade, reducing the turnover of home rebuilding for a better quality home life in existing premises. Since the onset of COVID-19 and more WFH, there has been more emphasis on making the living/working space more comfortable and homecenters and especially furnishings stores have done well. The recent purchase of LIXIL VIVA (3564 JP) by Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) (see Lixil Viva (3564 JP) Takeout Tender Offer) is but one example (and as noted in the insight, Lixil Viva is Tokyo-dominant in its revenue mix, Arcland runs the Musashi chain in Niigata).  This new deal is not surprising. The target is an "easy" one as it is cash-rich and not overly expensive. It also has some noisy shareholders on the register so getting something done earlier rather than later probably suits Shimachu too.We have no other details about the deal (i.e. no noise about price) yet. This announcement may have "leaked" in a way that is unwelcome, though we may have news by the time trading starts on Wednesday. DCM is scheduled to report H1 results on 29 Sep. Shimachu is scheduled to report full-year earnings on 9 October. As a trade, it certainly merits a look. 

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/015/original/2020-09-19_10-11-42.png?1600477913" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160015"></figure><p><strong>NEW 2-YEAR $ HIGH?</strong> - With the Yen on a tear against the US Dollar and the TOPIX index focused more on the inauguration of the Suga-era rather than NASDAQ, TOPIX in US dollars terms is within 1.2% of a new two-year high and is 36% above the March low. A supporting factor has been the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program which now appears to be anticipating currency-induced declines, rather than responding to actual decreases in TOPIX. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/020/original/2020-09-19_10-48-20.png?1600480112" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160020"></figure><p><strong>BULL v. BEARS</strong> - The technical market bulls will point to the 50-day moving average now being above the 200-day average. Bears will caution that we are the upper end of both the Toraku and Absolute Breadth ranges and are now 'rolling over'. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/021/original/2020-09-19_11-10-05.png?1600481514" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160021"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/022/original/2020-09-19_11-13-43.png?1600481635" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160022"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/023/original/2020-09-19_11-14-25.png?1600481694" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160023"></figure><p><strong>AN SME MARKET</strong> - As we noted last week, the ratio between TOPIX Small and TOPIX equalled its twenty-month high on Friday and could well reach parity if the Yen continues to appreciate. Indeed, the Value-Traded ratio is firmly in favour of a domestic small-cap-led market. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/025/original/2020-09-19_11-20-35.png?1600482049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160025"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/026/original/2020-09-19_11-24-09.png?1600482261" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160026"></figure><p><strong>AGGREGATE RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES YET TO BOTTOM</strong> - On several days last week, positive scores outweighed negative ones, and on Thursday, only one company has scored negatively. Nevertheless, the trend in the cap-weighted aggregate Scores has yet to see any recovery in earnings momentum.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/040/original/2020-09-19_12-34-38.png?1600486493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160040"></figure><p><strong>33x FY2021</strong> - The gap between forecast and trailing aggregate operating income is now ¥6.5 trillion and ¥3.7 trillion for net income. The forward earnings multiple is 32.6 times close to three times 2018's trailing low.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/041/original/2020-09-19_13-55-21.png?1600491337" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160041"></figure><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST RESULTS &amp; REViSIONS •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The 'best' announcements on Friday were from home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and, surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-u-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16580:1" rel="noopener">H.U. Group (4544 JP)</a> (formerly Miraca). </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/007/original/2020-09-19_09-47-20.png?1600476454" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160007"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/009/original/2020-09-19_09-55-21.png?1600476933" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160009"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p>Friday's 'worst' were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-diamond-industrial-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9032:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Diamond (6140 JP)</a> and Albert (3906 JP) </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/010/original/2020-09-19_09-58-46.png?1600477139" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160010"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/012/original/2020-09-19_10-00-34.png?1600477245" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160012"></figure><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div></div><div><p><strong>Both of Fridays' results scored negatively with Internet marketing company Albert (3906 JP) being the 'worst' - as above. Forecasts and Revisions reverted to bein net negative again.</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> 17 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 24% Positive / 16% Neutral / 65% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 31% Positive / 0% Neutral / 69% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.4 points</li>
</ul></div>

NEW 2-YEAR $ HIGH? - With the Yen on a tear against the US Dollar and the TOPIX index focused more on the inauguration of the Suga-era rather than NASDAQ, TOPIX in US dollars terms is within 1.2% of a new two-year high and is 36% above the March low. A supporting factor has been the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program which now appears to be anticipating currency-induced declines, rather than responding to actual decreases in TOPIX. BULL v. BEARS - The technical market bulls will point to the 50-day moving average now being above the 200-day average. Bears will caution that we are the upper end of both the Toraku and Absolute Breadth ranges and are now 'rolling over'. AN SME MARKET - As we noted last week, the ratio between TOPIX Small and TOPIX equalled its twenty-month high on Friday and could well reach parity if the Yen continues to appreciate. Indeed, the Value-Traded ratio is firmly in favour of a domestic small-cap-led market. AGGREGATE RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES YET TO BOTTOM - On several days last week, positive scores outweighed negative ones, and on Thursday, only one company has scored negatively. Nevertheless, the trend in the cap-weighted aggregate Scores has yet to see any recovery in earnings momentum.33x FY2021 - The gap between forecast and trailing aggregate operating income is now ¥6.5 trillion and ¥3.7 trillion for net income. The forward earnings multiple is 32.6 times close to three times 2018's trailing low.• BEST &amp; WORST RESULTS &amp; REViSIONS •The 'best' announcements on Friday were from home centre DCM (3050 JP) and, surprisingly, H.U. Group (4544 JP) (formerly Miraca). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFriday's 'worst' were from Asahi Diamond (6140 JP) and Albert (3906 JP) DAILY STATSBoth of Fridays' results scored negatively with Internet marketing company Albert (3906 JP) being the 'worst' - as above. Forecasts and Revisions reverted to bein net negative again. 17 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 24% Positive / 16% Neutral / 65% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 31% Positive / 0% Neutral / 69% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.4 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​​​18 - DCM, H.U., Strike

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from yesterday's announcements is food and drink retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life (8194 JP)</a> and parking lot operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/park24-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5622:1" rel="noopener">Park24 (4666 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/223/original/2020-09-16_04-25-58.png?1600198055" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159223"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/224/original/2020-09-16_04-31-11.png?1600198284" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159224"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>57</strong>% of quarterly results, <strong>54%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>44%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Score<strong>s. 57</strong>% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. </p></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>7 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 29% Positive / 14% Neutral / 57% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.7 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +6.6% Quarter YoY / +12.5% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.6ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 57%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change</strong>: 56% Positive / 0% Neutral / 44% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> +0.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from yesterday's announcements is food and drink retailer Life (8194 JP) and parking lot operator Park24 (4666 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATSPERCENTAGES -57% of quarterly results, 54% of annual forecasts/revisions and 44% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 57% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. 7 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 29% Positive / 14% Neutral / 57% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -1.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: +6.6% Quarter YoY / +12.5% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 57%
13 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 56% Positive / 0% Neutral / 44% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​15  -Park[24]ing Woes, Life in Life | Keiyo▲, Palma▼

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Japan

DCM Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company established through merger of Kahma, Daiki, and Homac.  The Company operates home center chain stores throughout Japan.  DCM Japan Holdings offers merchandise such as home improvement products, household utensils, gardening supplies, sporting/leisure goods, and pet products .

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DCM Holdings (3050 JP)

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

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• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS Both of Fridays' results scored negatively 23 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions Annual...

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​15 -Park[24]ing Woes, Life in Life | Keiyo▲, Palma▼

• BEST WORST •

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THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/15 -Park[24]ing Woes, Life in Life | Keiyo▲, Palma▼