Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020,  it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium.

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020,  it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium.

Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID Growth Track Record Has Been Very Strong

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

HSBC can continue to underperform DBS for a multitude of reasons, including both structural and cyclical factors. Higher oil prices will benefit DBS more so than HSBC, where the UK giant has de-risked and where total exposures are small.

HSBC can continue to underperform DBS for a multitude of reasons, including both structural and cyclical factors. Higher oil prices will benefit DBS more so than HSBC, where the UK giant has de-risked and where total exposures are small. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE). Still, we continue to see some reason for caution as various market dynamics have deteriorated, leading us to a more neutral outlook in the near-term.

Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE). Still, we continue to see some reason for caution as various market dynamics have deteriorated, leading us to a more neutral outlook in the near-term.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*AGM Leads To More Questions Than Answers: At its recent annual general meeting (AGM), DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] highlighted several back to the future mainland China strategies and tried to justify its truly dumb acquisition in India. The management team didn’t do itself any favors; and *Another Fine Mess You’ve Gotten Us Into: CEO Gupta was completely put back on his heals and left defending its acquisition of Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB). Shareholders raised fundamental concerns over financial losses and LVB’s impact on DBS' bottom-line. In our view, without some form of ring-fencing of LVB’s challenged assets it is unclear how this transaction would NOT have a negative material impact on DBS’ earnings and capital ratios over the near-term.

*AGM Leads To More Questions Than Answers: At its recent annual general meeting (AGM), DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] highlighted several back to the future mainland China strategies and tried to justify its truly dumb acquisition in India. The management team didn’t do itself any favors; and *Another Fine Mess You’ve Gotten Us Into: CEO Gupta was completely put back on his heals and left defending its acquisition of Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB). Shareholders raised fundamental concerns over financial losses and LVB’s impact on DBS' bottom-line. In our view, without some form of ring-fencing of LVB’s challenged assets it is unclear how this transaction would NOT have a negative material impact on DBS’ earnings and capital ratios over the near-term. 

DBS Group Holdings – Quickly Losing Credibility

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bf-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9276:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> announced its 4Q2020 and FY2020 results recently, which confirmed the continuing "prudent restart" to lending activity in 4Q2020, with a strong rebound in new bookings QoQ with indications of continuing momentum in 2021. It remains one of our top recovery stocks in Indonesia.
In terms of credit quality, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> saw a marked improvement in 4Q2020 with the NPL ratio falling significantly as a result of strong risk management efforts by management. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> has also significantly increased its Loan Loss Reserves (LLR) to 7.09% in 4Q2020 resulting in an increased in NPL coverage to 4.3% in 4Q2020.
The company also saw its Cost of Credit (COC) decline in 4Q2020  whilst the FY2020 number remained relatively high, partly due to high LLR to increase NPL cover.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a>'s net interest margin increased to 12.02% in 4Q2020 versus 11.62% in 3Q2020 thanks to an improved yield from new booking activities in 4Q2020, due to a decrease in the cost of funds and better yields on new bookings.
The company achieved a net profit of IDR702bn for FY2020, which was a decline of only -1.4% YoY. This looks like a solid performance given the backdrop of the pandemic together with the fact the company halted all lending activity in 2Q2020.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> has raised significant new funding and is well positioned to grow new bookings significantly in 2021, which is already being reflected in the performance in February and March.
It continues to take a prudent approach to new loans, with an increasing focus on credit scoring in its legacy business but also sees huge potential in collateralized productive lending as a growth engine.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a>'s valuations continue to look appealing with the company trading in 1.4x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 15.1% in FY21E rising to 18.7% in FY22E.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) announced its 4Q2020 and FY2020 results recently, which confirmed the continuing "prudent restart" to lending activity in 4Q2020, with a strong rebound in new bookings QoQ with indications of continuing momentum in 2021. It remains one of our top recovery stocks in Indonesia.
In terms of credit quality, BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) saw a marked improvement in 4Q2020 with the NPL ratio falling significantly as a result of strong risk management efforts by management. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) has also significantly increased its Loan Loss Reserves (LLR) to 7.09% in 4Q2020 resulting in an increased in NPL coverage to 4.3% in 4Q2020.
The company also saw its Cost of Credit (COC) decline in 4Q2020  whilst the FY2020 number remained relatively high, partly due to high LLR to increase NPL cover.
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)'s net interest margin increased to 12.02% in 4Q2020 versus 11.62% in 3Q2020 thanks to an improved yield from new booking activities in 4Q2020, due to a decrease in the cost of funds and better yields on new bookings.
The company achieved a net profit of IDR702bn for FY2020, which was a decline of only -1.4% YoY. This looks like a solid performance given the backdrop of the pandemic together with the fact the company halted all lending activity in 2Q2020.
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) has raised significant new funding and is well positioned to grow new bookings significantly in 2021, which is already being reflected in the performance in February and March.
It continues to take a prudent approach to new loans, with an increasing focus on credit scoring in its legacy business but also sees huge potential in collateralized productive lending as a growth engine.
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)'s valuations continue to look appealing with the company trading in 1.4x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 15.1% in FY21E rising to 18.7% in FY22E.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - More than A Prudent Restart

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID Growth Track Record Has Been Very Strong

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

HSBC and DBS – Divergent Performance

HSBC can continue to underperform DBS for many reasons, structural and cyclical. Higher oil prices can benefit DBS, more, weak UK hurts HSBC,...

Daniel Tabbush

Major Breakout For EURO STOXX 50

Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

DBS Group Holdings – Quickly Losing Credibility

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: At its recent AGM, DBS highlighted several back to the future mainland China strategies and tried to justify its acquisition in...

Thomas J. Monaco

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - More than A Prudent Restart

BFI Finance continues to grow its new bookings, having seen some recovery in 2H2020, revealed in its recent results, with the potential for a...

Angus Mackintosh

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