Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon.

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon. 

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN)</a> A2 Senior Unsecured and A3 Tier 2 ratings are on review for downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds are NOT on review for downgrade. We see this as more a case of Moody’s adjusting its ratings to the market, rather than a market making event. However, negative headline risk could nudge AT1 and Tier 2 bond prices lower. We would buy these dips.We believe the agency is mistaken to pre-judge the recent strategic update. Even if HSBC’s profitability suffers, short-term, the firm holds excess capital which it intends to invest in its future, rather than simply return to shareholders. Furthermore, Moody’s is clearly comfortable with HSBC’s lower capital target or it would also put the AT1 rating on review. Placing the Tier 2 rating on review for downgrade while stating that HSBC has a sufficient capital buffer to support its AT1 rating is a non-sequitur. Moody’s Tier 2 ratings are mechanically, rather than fundamentally, driven.Once a credit is placed on review for a downgrade, the likelihood of it occurring is greater than 50%. Irrespective, we are not convinced that this deserves to be reflected in the value of HSBC’s Tier 2 notes as this should be driven by the buffer of capital over the Point of Non-Viability. This buffer is enormous at HSBC. In fact, it is higher than that of the Singapore-based banks alongside of which HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds trade. Moody’s review for downgrade may create a buying opportunity in the Tier 2 space.

HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN) A2 Senior Unsecured and A3 Tier 2 ratings are on review for downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds are NOT on review for downgrade. We see this as more a case of Moody’s adjusting its ratings to the market, rather than a market making event. However, negative headline risk could nudge AT1 and Tier 2 bond prices lower. We would buy these dips.We believe the agency is mistaken to pre-judge the recent strategic update. Even if HSBC’s profitability suffers, short-term, the firm holds excess capital which it intends to invest in its future, rather than simply return to shareholders. Furthermore, Moody’s is clearly comfortable with HSBC’s lower capital target or it would also put the AT1 rating on review. Placing the Tier 2 rating on review for downgrade while stating that HSBC has a sufficient capital buffer to support its AT1 rating is a non-sequitur. Moody’s Tier 2 ratings are mechanically, rather than fundamentally, driven.Once a credit is placed on review for a downgrade, the likelihood of it occurring is greater than 50%. Irrespective, we are not convinced that this deserves to be reflected in the value of HSBC’s Tier 2 notes as this should be driven by the buffer of capital over the Point of Non-Viability. This buffer is enormous at HSBC. In fact, it is higher than that of the Singapore-based banks alongside of which HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds trade. Moody’s review for downgrade may create a buying opportunity in the Tier 2 space.

HSBC: On Review for Downgrade, Buy the Dips

*Poor Results: BDO Unibank (BDO.PM)[BDO] reported 4Q20 net income of PHP 11.3bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (8.5%) decline linked quarter. Highlighting the linked quarter result we note that loss provisions increased PHP 5.0 bn (360.8%) reflecting the continued breakdown in credit quality;  Credit Risk Rising: Not including the doubling of restructured loans, the level of net new NPLs increased PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% on an annualized basis which is alarming considering the 67.9% annualized increase at 2Q20.  By our calculation, BDO’s reserves  - at a minimum  - are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of bottom-line results.   This is particularly disturbing as BDO is amongst the most trusted banks in the Philippines and ASEAN, and this certainly calls into question what competitor loan and securities portfolios look like; and *Capital Raise Potential: Assuming that our provision analytics are correct, we find that BDO’s CET1 ratio would decline 13.2% to under 11.0% - raising concerns of a capital raise given BDO’s unrealized losses at hefty restructured loans, BDO Life, decelerating loan growth, narrowing margins, and trading volatility.

*Poor Results: BDO Unibank (BDO.PM)[BDO] reported 4Q20 net income of PHP 11.3bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (8.5%) decline linked quarter. Highlighting the linked quarter result we note that loss provisions increased PHP 5.0 bn (360.8%) reflecting the continued breakdown in credit quality;  Credit Risk Rising: Not including the doubling of restructured loans, the level of net new NPLs increased PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% on an annualized basis which is alarming considering the 67.9% annualized increase at 2Q20.  By our calculation, BDO’s reserves  - at a minimum  - are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of bottom-line results.   This is particularly disturbing as BDO is amongst the most trusted banks in the Philippines and ASEAN, and this certainly calls into question what competitor loan and securities portfolios look like; and *Capital Raise Potential: Assuming that our provision analytics are correct, we find that BDO’s CET1 ratio would decline 13.2% to under 11.0% - raising concerns of a capital raise given BDO’s unrealized losses at hefty restructured loans, BDO Life, decelerating loan growth, narrowing margins, and trading volatility.

BDO Unibank – With This Level Of Risk, A Capital Raise Can’t Be Too Far Behind

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Tier 1 ratios are all the same, however allowance for loan losses (LLR) are vastly different, for the three Singapore banks. This has implications for banks’ relative ability to absorb loan losses and for credit costs during the current year.

Tier 1 ratios are all the same, however allowance for loan losses (LLR) are vastly different, for the three Singapore banks. This has implications for banks’ relative ability to absorb loan losses and for credit costs during the current year.

Singapore Banks – Vast Differences In Provisioning

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India (SBIN IN)</a> represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-macro-manifest-risk-rally-gathers-steam-as-bad-news-more-stimulus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Macro Manifest</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy</a> notes for more details.

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. State Bank of India (SBIN IN) represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent Bank Macro Manifest and Bank Credit Strategy notes for more details.

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Bank Negara Indonesia: Without any detail the MOSOE announced that BBNI will seek a rights offering in 2022. We calculate a minimum loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC: On Review for Downgrade, Buy the Dips

The capital buffer over the Point of Non-Viability matters most to Tier 2 investors. Moody’s Tier 2 ratings are mechanically, rather than...

Hank Calenti, CFA

BDO Unibank – With This Level Of Risk, A Capital Raise Can’t Be Too Far Behind

BDO UNIBANK: BDO reported a 4Q20 net income decline of 8.5% linked quarter. The level of net new NPLs increased 116% with reserves light by PHP 66...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Banks – Vast Differences In Provisioning

DBS has a higher loan loss allowance/loan ratio than peers, and far more FY20 credit costs vs. FY19 than peers. Its loss absorption, reversal...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Global bank bond prices fell by less than their benchmark notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Given the rate of change, there are...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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