Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hagl-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6632:1" rel="noopener">Hagl Jsc (HAG VN)</a> is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

<ul>
<li>There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.</li>
<li>The adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-hanoi-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17575:1" rel="noopener">Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viet-nam-construction-impo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17309:1" rel="noopener">Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN)</a>, while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eclat-textile-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13209:1" rel="noopener">Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.
The adds are Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN) and Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN), while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.
The largest passive outflows are on Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) and Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT). 


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

<ul>
<li>There are 8 additions to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 18 March. Moderate impact on most of the adds.</li>
<li>There are some stocks that have large float changes; watch <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-thuong-tin-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:650:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN)</a>. Over 1 day of ADV to sell on some stocks due to capping changes.</li>
<li>At the December rebalance, all 5 adds jumped the day post announcement and then stayed in a range till implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 additions to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 18 March. Moderate impact on most of the adds.
There are some stocks that have large float changes; watch Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN). Over 1 day of ADV to sell on some stocks due to capping changes.
At the December rebalance, all 5 adds jumped the day post announcement and then stayed in a range till implementation of the changes.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Eight Additions & Some Big Float Changes

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Debt Capital Markets

Dat Xanh Group is roadshowing 5NC3 USD Notes, the proceeds of which will be used to subscribe to additional equity in subsidiary Ha An, for financing and real estate development.​  The company, which began as a real estate agency/brokerage firm in 2003, expanded into real estate development in 2007 and then into construction in 2011. DXG has an aggressive appetite for land, and the company plans to acquire 4,000 ha (40 mn sqm) by 2030. We have heard from the street that DXG is willing to price the proposed Notes at any price, and are curious about the apparent sense of urgency. We see fair value for the Notes at c. 10%. However, we would not be surprised if the deal were to be pulled, given the risk of contagion from the Chinese property sector.

 Dat Xanh Group is roadshowing 5NC3 USD Notes, the proceeds of which will be used to subscribe to additional equity in subsidiary Ha An, for financing and real estate development.​   The company, which began as a real estate agency/brokerage firm in 2003, expanded into real estate development in 2007 and then into construction in 2011. DXG has an aggressive appetite for land, and the company plans to acquire 4,000 ha (40 mn sqm) by 2030.  We have heard from the street that DXG is willing to price the proposed Notes at any price, and are curious about the apparent sense of urgency. We see fair value for the Notes at c. 10%. However, we would not be surprised if the deal were to be pulled, given the risk of contagion from the Chinese property sector.

Dat Xanh Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Established as a brokerage firm, Dat Xanh Group (HSX:DXG) leveraged its business into real estate development, based on its knowledge and customer database in residential industry. Accumulated at low cost, its huge land bank could be gradually transformed into products, bringing cash flow and value to the company in the coming period. We believe that 2018 could be the success year when DXG will launch its first premium product locating in District 2, HCMC. Moreover, its brokerage and secondary investment services continues to achieve doube-digit growth of profit in coming years, making its dominant position in the industry. In 2018, we estimated DXG’s total revenue and NPAT at approximately VND 4,497 billion (+56% YoY) and VND 1,047 billion (+38% YoY), respectively. Forecasted EPS for 2018 is VND 3,412. Using the RNAV method, the fair value of DXG is around VND 40,800, 26.3% higher than current price (updated as of February 27, 2018). Therefore, we recommend BUY to DXG.

Established as a brokerage firm, Dat Xanh Group (HSX:DXG) leveraged its business into real estate development, based on its knowledge and customer database in residential industry. Accumulated at low cost, its huge land bank could be gradually transformed into products, bringing cash flow and value to the company in the coming period. We believe that 2018 could be the success year when DXG will launch its first premium product locating in District 2, HCMC. Moreover, its brokerage and secondary investment services continues to achieve doube-digit growth of profit in coming years, making its dominant position in the industry.  In 2018, we estimated DXG’s total revenue and NPAT at approximately VND 4,497 billion (+56% YoY) and VND 1,047 billion (+38% YoY), respectively. Forecasted EPS for 2018 is VND 3,412. Using the RNAV method, the fair value of DXG is around VND 40,800, 26.3% higher than current price (updated as of February 27, 2018). Therefore, we recommend BUY to DXG.

DXG - Aggressive Movement After Accumulation Period

Vietnam

Dat Xanh Group Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and constructs trade centers, office buildings, apartments, resorts, villa, and hotels, as well as property management, brokerage, and leasing services. Dat Xanh Group serves customers in Vietnam.

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Dat Xanh Group (DXG VN)

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

There is 1 addition and 2 deletions for the MVIS Vietnam Index. There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

There are 2 adds, 1 delete, float and capping changes for the MVIS Vietnam Index to be implemented at the close on 17 June. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Eight Additions & Some Big Float Changes

There are 8 additions and quite a few float changes to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the March rebalance. The one-way trade is US$80m and over a day of...

Brian Freitas

Dat Xanh Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

Dat Xanh Group is roadshowing 5NC3 USD Notes, the proceeds of which will be used to subscribe to additional equity in subsidiary Ha An, for...

Lucror Analytics

DXG - Aggressive Movement After Accumulation Period

Established as a brokerage firm, Dat Xanh Group (HSX:DXG) leveraged its business into real estate development, based on its knowledge and customer...

Rong Viet Securities

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