Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data from SouFun-CREIS, though with highly divergent performance across the cities. The strong index-level price growth this year has been largely driven by Shenzhen, Shanghai and cities near the Tier-1 cities, benefiting from spill-over effect: Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai and Zhongshan near Shenzhen, Kunshan near Shanghai, Baoding and Langfang near Beijing…

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data from SouFun-CREIS, though with highly divergent performance across the cities. The strong index-level price growth this year has been largely driven by Shenzhen, Shanghai and cities near the Tier-1 cities, benefiting from spill-over effect: Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai and Zhongshan near Shenzhen, Kunshan near Shanghai, Baoding and Langfang near Beijing…

China House Prices in April Increased at Faster Pace Overall, Highly Divergent Across Cities

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:<ul><li>Interest rate risk in the banking book</li><li>Prudential treatment of problem assets</li><li>Revisions to BIS III leverage ratio</li><li>Constraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightings</li><li>Pillar 3 disclosure requirements</li><li>Revisions to operational risk framework</li><li>Revised framework for market risk capital requirements</li><li>Identification and measurement of step-in risk</li></ul>Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:Interest rate risk in the banking bookPrudential treatment of problem assetsRevisions to BIS III leverage ratioConstraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightingsPillar 3 disclosure requirementsRevisions to operational risk frameworkRevised framework for market risk capital requirementsIdentification and measurement of step-in riskSource: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

Viacom would likely face few antitrust concerns should a rival studio like 21st Century Fox or a firm like Dalian Wanda Group or Alibaba acquire a minority stake in Viacom’s Paramount Pictures, according to a former deputy attorney general in the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust division.

Viacom would likely face few antitrust concerns should a rival studio like 21st Century Fox or a firm like Dalian Wanda Group or Alibaba acquire a minority stake in Viacom’s Paramount Pictures, according to a former deputy attorney general in the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust division.

Does 1948 Consent Decree Limit Viacom's Search for Paramount Stakeholder?

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties / Event-Driven

<ul><li>Dalian Wanda Group, the Controlling Shareholder of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties ("3699 HK"), has informed the company that it is in the preliminary phase of considering a Voluntary General Offer for the H Shares</li><li>If the Voluntary General Offer proceeds, it could result in the privatization and delisting of the Company from the Stock Exchange</li><li>Consideration is also being given as to whether and how to proceed, subject to relevant laws and regulations, with an offer for holders of domestic shares (A Shares) of the Company</li><li>Dalian Wanda Group has indicated that the offer price will be not less than HKD 48 (this is also the IPO price of 3699 HK in December 2014) </li></ul>3699 HK has 14.4% of its share capital in H Shares and 85.6% in A Shares. The Controlling Shareholder, owns 43.71% of 3699 entirely in A Shares. We've recently seen deals involving delistings of H and A Shares; Wumart, Zhengzhou China Resource Gas, Jingwei Textile and Hunan Nonferrous Metals come to mind.In this insight, we take a look at the possible deal timeline, the possible offer range and examine the likelihood of deal completion.

Dalian Wanda Group, the Controlling Shareholder of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties ("3699 HK"), has informed the company that it is in the preliminary phase of considering a Voluntary General Offer for the H SharesIf the Voluntary General Offer proceeds, it could result in the privatization and delisting of the Company from the Stock ExchangeConsideration is also being given as to whether and how to proceed, subject to relevant laws and regulations, with an offer for holders of domestic shares (A Shares) of the CompanyDalian Wanda Group has indicated that the offer price will be not less than HKD 48 (this is also the IPO price of 3699 HK in December 2014) 3699 HK has 14.4% of its share capital in H Shares and 85.6% in A Shares. The Controlling Shareholder, owns 43.71% of 3699 entirely in A Shares. We've recently seen deals involving delistings of H and A Shares; Wumart, Zhengzhou China Resource Gas, Jingwei Textile and Hunan Nonferrous Metals come to mind.In this insight, we take a look at the possible deal timeline, the possible offer range and examine the likelihood of deal completion. 

Dalian Wanda - I Wanda How He Thinks He Can Privatize at HK$48

China

Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial property developer, owner, and operator. The Company develops and manages mixed-use property projects including retail, office, hotel, residential, restaurant, entertainment, and other projects. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group conducts businesses in China.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

China House Prices in April Increased at Faster Pace Overall, Highly Divergent Across Cities

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data...

Robert Ciemniak

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow...

Daniel Tabbush

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

Dalian Wanda - I Wanda How He Thinks He Can Privatize at HK$48

Dalian Wanda Group, the Controlling Shareholder of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties ("3699 HK"), has informed the company that it is in the...

Crispin Francis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China House Prices in April Increased at Faster Pace Overall, Highly Divergent Across Cities

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data...

Robert Ciemniak

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow...

Daniel Tabbush

Does 1948 Consent Decree Limit Viacom's Search for Paramount Stakeholder?

Viacom would likely face few antitrust concerns should a rival studio like 21st Century Fox or a firm like Dalian Wanda Group or Alibaba acquire a...

CTFN

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

Dalian Wanda - I Wanda How He Thinks He Can Privatize at HK$48

Dalian Wanda Group, the Controlling Shareholder of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties ("3699 HK"), has informed the company that it is in the...

Crispin Francis