Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) came to +9.7% YoY in December 2020: the highest YoY growth level ever recorded, surpassing the previous record of +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August and far exceeding the banks’ aggregate loan growth which declined in December 2020 to just +5.3% YoY.  This represented the 171st consecutive month of YoY deposit growth for all JBA member banks.  Banks have more money than they know what to do with, and not nearly enough borrowers to lend to.Taking a closer look at the data, major bank deposit balances have actually fallen in five of the last six months (November being the exception). In contrast to the major banks, deposit balances at both the regional and secondary regional banks continue to grow markedly, +8.9% YoY (a new all-time record) and +8.6% YoY (2nd-highest YoY growth rate ever), respectively.  Unsurprisingly, their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) continue to deteriorate rapidly, although nowhere near the average LDR of the major banks which is now down to 51.4%.‘Profitless prosperity’ remains an ongoing reality for Japan’s banks: awash in cash, margins under relentless pressure and struggling to avoid yet another year of shareholder disappointment through further profits decline.  Some small local banks are already forecasting consolidated net losses for FY3/2021 that have little to do with the adverse economic impact of COVID-19 per se but reflect the difficult operating conditions for all Japanese banks in an ongoing near-zero interest rate environment.“Caveat Emptor!”  (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/011/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0126-EbbTide+TPNBNKvsTPX+in+2020.jpg?1611797731" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185011"></figure></section>

Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) came to +9.7% YoY in December 2020: the highest YoY growth level ever recorded, surpassing the previous record of +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August and far exceeding the banks’ aggregate loan growth which declined in December 2020 to just +5.3% YoY.  This represented the 171st consecutive month of YoY deposit growth for all JBA member banks.  Banks have more money than they know what to do with, and not nearly enough borrowers to lend to.Taking a closer look at the data, major bank deposit balances have actually fallen in five of the last six months (November being the exception). In contrast to the major banks, deposit balances at both the regional and secondary regional banks continue to grow markedly, +8.9% YoY (a new all-time record) and +8.6% YoY (2nd-highest YoY growth rate ever), respectively.  Unsurprisingly, their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) continue to deteriorate rapidly, although nowhere near the average LDR of the major banks which is now down to 51.4%.‘Profitless prosperity’ remains an ongoing reality for Japan’s banks: awash in cash, margins under relentless pressure and struggling to avoid yet another year of shareholder disappointment through further profits decline.  Some small local banks are already forecasting consolidated net losses for FY3/2021 that have little to do with the adverse economic impact of COVID-19 per se but reflect the difficult operating conditions for all Japanese banks in an ongoing near-zero interest rate environment.“Caveat Emptor!”  (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Banks:  Buddy, Can We Spare You a Dime !

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) confirm the trend that we noted in earlier Smartkarma Insights on Japanese bank lending, namely that lending by the major banks continues to decline in terms of the outstanding loan balance since reaching a peak in June, even though YoY growth rates remain high compared to previous years.Total loan outstandings have fallen in five of the last six months (November being the exception), primarily because of declining loan balances at the major banks.  The declaration of a State of Emergency in several prefectures, as Japan continues to battle a surge in coronavirus infections, is unlikely to change this trend significantly.  However, as noted in other recent Smartkarma Insights on the outlook for the Japanese banking sector in 2021, these are loans, not grants, and will need either to be repaid in full or, if that becomes impossible, be declared as ‘value impaired’ by the lending banks and properly reserved against.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) confirm the trend that we noted in earlier Smartkarma Insights on Japanese bank lending, namely that lending by the major banks continues to decline in terms of the outstanding loan balance since reaching a peak in June, even though YoY growth rates remain high compared to previous years.Total loan outstandings have fallen in five of the last six months (November being the exception), primarily because of declining loan balances at the major banks.  The declaration of a State of Emergency in several prefectures, as Japan continues to battle a surge in coronavirus infections, is unlikely to change this trend significantly.  However, as noted in other recent Smartkarma Insights on the outlook for the Japanese banking sector in 2021, these are loans, not grants, and will need either to be repaid in full or, if that becomes impossible, be declared as ‘value impaired’ by the lending banks and properly reserved against.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Lending: An Ebb Tide in 2021?

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul><li>Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.</li><li>Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.</li><li>Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.</li><li>Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? </li></ul>

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the lowest level of new offerings in four years.Meanwhile, stock buybacks have soared to a record 4.35 trillion yen (USD$41.8 bn)--the most in history presumably to shore up capital efficiency.Opponents in principle claim buybacks inhibit growth, and investment and also impede wage growth which in turn, keeps spending sluggish.Do Japan's persistent low GDP numbers reflect some of this corporate policy strategies? Does the same phenomenon apply to the US? 

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

On Jan. 19, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reported that it will likely book a combined noncash charge of up to JPY 700 billion, mainly for goodwill impairments on the U.S. nuclear business acquisition through its U.S. subsidiary, Westinghouse. The scale of impairment significantly exceeded the market expectation at the end of last year, as it is likely to push Toshiba’s thin net equity position of JPY 360 billion into a deficit, with potential delisting from the Tokyo Stock Exchange in sight.As the second-largest diversified industry group after Hitachi, Toshiba maintains a membership status within the Mitsui “zaibatsu” group, a cross-industry alliance of leading domestic companies dating back to the 16th century. According to a press report, as of the end of September 2016, Toshiba maintains a total of JPY 798.7 billion in loans outstanding, consisting of: (1) JPY 110 billion for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/217" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a>); (2) JPY 110 billion for Mizuho Bank (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group Inc (8411 JP)</a>); (3) JPY 102 billion for Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Gro (8306 JP)</a>); and (4) JPY 75 billion for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19450" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19450:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (8309 JP)</a>).Anlayst: Mari Kumagai

On Jan. 19, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reported that it will likely book a combined noncash charge of up to JPY 700 billion, mainly for goodwill impairments on the U.S. nuclear business acquisition through its U.S. subsidiary, Westinghouse. The scale of impairment significantly exceeded the market expectation at the end of last year, as it is likely to push Toshiba’s thin net equity position of JPY 360 billion into a deficit, with potential delisting from the Tokyo Stock Exchange in sight.As the second-largest diversified industry group after Hitachi, Toshiba maintains a membership status within the Mitsui “zaibatsu” group, a cross-industry alliance of leading domestic companies dating back to the 16th century. According to a press report, as of the end of September 2016, Toshiba maintains a total of JPY 798.7 billion in loans outstanding, consisting of: (1) JPY 110 billion for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)); (2) JPY 110 billion for Mizuho Bank (Mizuho Financial Group Inc (8411 JP)); (3) JPY 102 billion for Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Gro (8306 JP)); and (4) JPY 75 billion for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (8309 JP)).Anlayst: Mari Kumagai

Minimal Impact From Larger Credit Loss on Toshiba; Maintaining FVE for Major Japanese Banks

Four major banks under our coverage reported better-than-expected results, indicating an inflection point in their earning structure. In aggregate, of four major banks under our coverage, the numbers are similarly down across most metrics. On average, net income fell 11% from the year-ago period with operating income decreasing 19% from the year ago period. Momentum in trading and commission, both tracking the midcycle average, failed to offset lower net interest income, down 13% from the year-ago period to JPY 2,072 billion for the three major banks. Management for three major banks did not object to market consensus of JPY 300 billion negative earning impacts since the implementation of Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy earlier this year. Management also maintained their full-year net profit forecast unchanged, citing their cautious stance after the election results. However, they also mentioned that further downside from the policy implementation is likely to be limited after the BoJ is transitioning its policy to control the yield curve instead.Our top pick will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Gro (8306 JP)</a> as it is best-positioned to benefit from its underappreciated global business exposure with about a quarter of its earning assets tied to U.S. markets. This excludes a 23% lucrative equity investment in Morgan Stanley. We will revise our fair value estimates with a detailed earnings note on each respective bank in coming weeks.Analyst: Mari Kumagai

Four major banks under our coverage reported better-than-expected results, indicating an inflection point in their earning structure. In aggregate, of four major banks under our coverage, the numbers are similarly down across most metrics. On average, net income fell 11% from the year-ago period with operating income decreasing 19% from the year ago period. Momentum in trading and commission, both tracking the midcycle average, failed to offset lower net interest income, down 13% from the year-ago period to JPY 2,072 billion for the three major banks. Management for three major banks did not object to market consensus of JPY 300 billion negative earning impacts since the implementation of Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy earlier this year. Management also maintained their full-year net profit forecast unchanged, citing their cautious stance after the election results. However, they also mentioned that further downside from the policy implementation is likely to be limited after the BoJ is transitioning its policy to control the yield curve instead.Our top pick will be Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Gro (8306 JP) as it is best-positioned to benefit from its underappreciated global business exposure with about a quarter of its earning assets tied to U.S. markets. This excludes a 23% lucrative equity investment in Morgan Stanley. We will revise our fair value estimates with a detailed earnings note on each respective bank in coming weeks.Analyst: Mari Kumagai

1H16 Better-Than-Expected Results Suggest Earnings Inflection Points; Positive For Japanese Banks

Japan

The Daishi Bank, Ltd. is a Niigata based regional bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign transactions, and securities investments.  The Daishi Bank also provides leasing, financing, letter of credit, and credit cards.

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Daishi Bank (8324 JP)

Japanese Banks: Buddy, Can We Spare You a Dime !

Cash continues to flow into bank deposits in Japan faster than the banks appear able to channel those funds into loans or investments that might...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: An Ebb Tide in 2021?

The ‘dash for cash’ by large corporates appears to be over, at least in terms of lending by the major banks. Only the small secondary regionals...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Could Japan's Aggressive Stock Buyback Spree Slow an Economic Rebound?

Offerings of equities and convertible bonds totaled 720 billion yen over the first nine months of '16 and the trend continues unabated. Its the...

Howard J Klein

Minimal Impact From Larger Credit Loss on Toshiba; Maintaining FVE for Major Japanese Banks

On Jan. 19, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reported that it will likely book a combined noncash charge of up to JPY 700 billion, mainly for goodwill...

Morningstar, Inc.

1H16 Better-Than-Expected Results Suggest Earnings Inflection Points; Positive For Japanese Banks

Four major banks under our coverage reported better-than-expected results, indicating an inflection point in their earning structure. In aggregate,...

Morningstar, Inc.

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