'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a>
</div><blockquote><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</blockquote>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.<hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Hokuetsu Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary offering, and that the company, to mitigate some of this impact, would repurchase up to 23m shares for a maximum of ¥14bn. The mechanics of the deal and the event angle have been covered thoroughly by Travis Lundy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/end-of-an-era-marked-by-hokuetsu-paper-buyback-and-offering" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. We spoke to the company this morning to try and ascertain what the fundamental value was and whether the offering could prove attractive. Our thoughts below.

On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary offering, and that the company, to mitigate some of this impact, would repurchase up to 23m shares for a maximum of ¥14bn. The mechanics of the deal and the event angle have been covered thoroughly by Travis Lundy here. We spoke to the company this morning to try and ascertain what the fundamental value was and whether the offering could prove attractive. Our thoughts below.

Hokuetsu – Uninspiring but There Is Some Value Here

Quantamental Researcher, JD Finance Quantamental Research

Ben Li

Quantamental Researcher

JD Finance Quantamental Research

JD Finance Big Data Quantamental Research is a data and insight provider of proprietary online eCommerce data, under the arm of big data analytics team in JD Finance. JD Finance is an affiliate of US listed JD, a leading eCommerce player in China. It is one of the largest fintech companies in China, with business spanning across consumer loans, fund distribution, and quantitative strategy research. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data up to December 2017Online Channel Continuously Gaining Share; Japanese Sanitary Napkins Brands to Lead the Overall Market<ul><li>Although offline is still the major purchase channel for paper products, online channel has been gaining more share, especially during promotional seasons.</li><li>Japanese Diapers brands account for a majority of online market share, gradually caught up US brands on the offline battlefield to take the lead offline as well.</li><li>Due to the improvement in product mix and possible unit price increase, the ASP of Tissues realized a 5% y/y growth rate with an impressive growth rate in the past 6 months.</li></ul>Please feel free to contact us for specific data requests.

Data up to December 2017Online Channel Continuously Gaining Share; Japanese Sanitary Napkins Brands to Lead the Overall MarketAlthough offline is still the major purchase channel for paper products, online channel has been gaining more share, especially during promotional seasons.Japanese Diapers brands account for a majority of online market share, gradually caught up US brands on the offline battlefield to take the lead offline as well.Due to the improvement in product mix and possible unit price increase, the ASP of Tissues realized a 5% y/y growth rate with an impressive growth rate in the past 6 months.Please feel free to contact us for specific data requests.

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Waning Chinese demand for nappies hits overall growth rate</li><li>Demographic changes shaping market performance</li><li>Adult incontinence drives share gains</li><li>Health and beauty specialists and internet retailing increase share</li><li>Adult incontinence to overtake nappies/diapers/pants</li></ul>

Waning Chinese demand for nappies hits overall growth rateDemographic changes shaping market performanceAdult incontinence drives share gainsHealth and beauty specialists and internet retailing increase shareAdult incontinence to overtake nappies/diapers/pants

Sector Briefing: Tissue and Hygiene in Japan (Market Summary) - Part 1

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast<div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Japan

Nippon Paper Industries Co. Ltd. manufactures and sells paper and pulp products.  The Company also manages wood building material business, logistic service, and leisure industry.

Hokuetsu Corporation is a paper and pulp products producer. The Company produces pulp, printing paper, specialty paper, fiber sheets, paperboard, coatedpaper, and lumber.  Hokuetsu Kishu Paper has an Elemental Chlorine Free bleaching facility for more environmentally friendly processing.

DAIKEN CORPORATION manufactures mineral and wooden fiberboards.  The Company also makes special plywood for ships, rolling stock, and musical instruments. Daiken operates engineering services and real estate business.

Tokushu Tokai Paper Co.,Ltd. is a holding company, which was established through reorganization.  The Group companies manufactures paperboards, specialty papers, and miscellaneous papers for industrial use.

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Limited manufactures and distributes pulp and a variety of paper products.  The Company's products include photographic paper, printing paper, and special purpose paper.

Chuetsu Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. is a pulp and paper manufacturer.  The Company produces pulp, general paper, kraft wrapping paper, paperboard, and newsprint. Chuetsu Pulp & Paper also makes specialty paper, such as water and oil repellent paper.

WOOD ONE CO., LTD. mainly manufactures and sells secondary processed plywoods for floorings and fixtures.  The Company specializes in long floorings and lumber materials used in stairs, doors, and cabinets.  WOOD ONE has a subsidiary which operates forestation management in New Zealand.

NANKAI PLYWOOD CO., LTD. is a wood-processing company.  The Company's main products are Japanese-style room ceilings & floors and storage compartments. Nankai imports lumber from South-eastern Asia and produces plywood.

SK KAKEN CO., LTD. manufactures and sells paints primarily for construction. The Company also paints buildings.  SK Kaken also operates overseas, especially in Southeast Asia.

FUSO CHEMICAL CO., LTD. manufactures fruit acid and its salts.  The Company also produces resin additives, fine chemical products, and silica related derivatives.

Clearwater Paper Corp. manufactures consumer tissue, bleached paperboard, and wood products.  The Company supplies private label tissue to major retail grocery chains and produces bleached paperboard that is used by printers and packaging converters.

Dehua TB New Decoration Material Co., Ltd. manufactures decorative plywood, cabinetwork board, and adhesive bonded panel.

Anhui Shanying Paper Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets paper products including corrugated paper, paperboard, and paper boxes.  The Company sells its products domestically.

Ence Energia y Celulosa SA produces eucalyptus cellulose and renewable energy with forestry waste. The Company has two plants in Navia and Pontevedra (Spain), with a total pulp net capacity of 930,000 tons/year and an installed power capacity of 223MW. Ence also manages forests in Spain.

Dexco S.A. manufactures reconstituted wooden boards geared to both furniture manufacturers and housing segments. The Company produces wood panels and bathroom porcelain. Dexco serves customers in Brazil.

Guangdong Guanhao High-Tech Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells thermal paper, carbon free duplicate paper, and gelatin capsules. The Company also manufactures products such as printer paper, scientific instrumental log paper, and fax paper.

Guangdong Guanhao High Tech Co (600433 CH)

Yueyang Forest & Paper Co Ltd manufactures and markets a variety of paper products which include offset newsprint, pigment finishing offset paper, and paper pulp.

Shandong Bohui Paper Industrial Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of paper products. The Company's products include stationery paper, offset printing paper, and paperboard.

Qifeng New Material Co., Ltd. researches and develops, manufactures and sells decorative base paper. The Company's products include plain decorative base paper, printable decorative base paper, wear-resistant base paper and equilibrium base paper.

Shandong Huatai Paper Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells paper products, including writing paper, bathroom and facial tissue, paper towels, and folding cartons. The Company also manufactures chemicals, including alkalies, chlorine, and chloropropene.

Daio Paper Corporation is a paper, pulp, and paperboard manufacturer.  The Company produces general printing paper for magazines and catalogues, newsprint, office paper, corrugated materials, kraft liner, facial and toilet tissue, paper towels, and feminine hygiene products.  Daio Paper also produces adhesive papers.  The Company has operations in Japan, the United States, and Chile.

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Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

Hokuetsu – Uninspiring but There Is Some Value Here

On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary...

Mio Kato

2017 China Paper Products Report

Data up to December 2017Online Channel Continuously Gaining Share; Japanese Sanitary Napkins Brands to Lead the Overall Market Although offline is...

Ben Li

Sector Briefing: Tissue and Hygiene in Japan (Market Summary) - Part 1

Waning Chinese demand for nappies hits overall growth rate Demographic changes shaping market performance Adult incontinence drives share...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

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