Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz
NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?


Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet;  "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM
NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!


Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es</li>
<li>NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es
NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.


Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Japan

DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use.  The Company also produces fluorine chemical products such as fluorinated hydrocarbon gas and shells and warheads for defense industry.

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Daikin Industries (6367 JP)

Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet; "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

US out for 4th of July - Global markets quiet; NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

SPX gains ahead of 4th July holidays; NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs; JP land prices...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

Stocks fall on recession fears/higher rates. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 JP inflation remains elevated - BOJ pickle ? JIC ¥1trn bid...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

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