HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The benefits of assisted reproduction being covered by medical insurance are limited. Its main role is still to delay not fundamentally reverse the decline of China's birth rate.</li>
<li>If the valuation collapse occurs collectively in one field, it basically reflects that Miss Market does not hold much hope for this field in the future, such as cell therapy. </li>
<li>We mainly analyzed some key points of the companies that investors may be interested in, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iray-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35716:1" rel="noopener">iRay Technology (688301 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-medicilon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30368:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of assisted reproduction being covered by medical insurance are limited. Its main role is still to delay not fundamentally reverse the decline of China's birth rate.
If the valuation collapse occurs collectively in one field, it basically reflects that Miss Market does not hold much hope for this field in the future, such as cell therapy. 
We mainly analyzed some key points of the companies that investors may be interested in, such as iRay Technology (688301 CH) and Shanghai Medicilon Inc (688202 CH).


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) - Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.</li>
<li>Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days' ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.</li>
<li>493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. <em>And... Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.</em>
</li>
</ul>


The TSE announced its first large FFW rebalance under new rules and Market Segmentation. ~1,000 names see FFW drop 5% or more. 100+ rise 5+%. Reverse funding trades are significant.
Top BUY flow: Toyota, Olympus, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokio Marine, JP Holdings with an average of 4.0 days' ADV to buy. Softbank/9984, MitCorp, Hitachi, Suzuki, Marubeni average 4.8 days to SELL.
493 names start their phased weight reduction out of TOPIX because they do not meet the hurdle for minimum trading value. And... Shinsei is the most impressive SELL name.



TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceuticals, clinical testing, and medical equipment for intractable diseases.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is engaged in research and development, manufacturing, sales and marketing, and import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The Company focuses on the core therapeutic areas of oncology, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system disease.

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

ROHTO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and cosmetics products.  The Company's products include eyewash, bath soaps, gastrointestinal medicine, and hand cream.  Rohto Pharmaceutical also has a license agreement with its subsidiary, Mentholatum (US) to sell their brand products.  The Company also manufactures contact lenses and health foods.

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

Sanofi operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Sanofi also develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, and oncology medicines and drugs. Sanofi serves customers worldwide.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

UCB SA is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company specializes in the treatment of central nervous system disorders and inflammatory diseases. UCB operates worldwide.

Merck KGaA is a global pharmaceutical and chemicals company. The Company researches drugs in the areas oncology and neurodegenerative as well as autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Also, it markets cardiovascular, fertility, endocrinology, and over-the-counter products as well as products for flat screens and the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetics, packaging, and coatings.

GlaxoSmithKline PLC operates as a research-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets vaccines, prescription, and over-the-counter medicines, as well as health-related consumer products. GlaxoSmithKline provides products for infections, depression, skin conditions, asthma, heart and circulatory disease, and cancer.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded human pharmaceuticals, as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries serves customers worldwide.

Horizon Pharma plc operates as a biopharmaceutical company. Horizon Pharma develops, acquires, and commercializes late-stage biopharmaceutical therapies for the treatment of pain and inflammation as well as specialty and orphan diseases.

GSK PLC operates as a research-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets vaccines, prescription, and over-the-counter medicines, as well as health-related consumer products. GSK provides products for infections, depression, skin conditions, asthma, heart and circulatory disease, and cancer.

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.10) - Assisted Reproduction into NRDL, Cell Therapy, Medicilon, IRay,

Medical insurance coverage of assisted reproduction has limited positive effects;Mr Market may not hold much hope for cell therapy after valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows

The annual TOPIX FFW rebalance is larger this year than normal, with the twist that 493 names will now start to be phased out completely.

Travis Lundy

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

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