IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> IFA opines that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.</li>
<li>In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.</li>
<li>The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. </li>
</ul>



Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) IFA opines that the OCBC (OCBC SP) S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.
In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.
The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. 


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> shows us that worsening policies in force is far more important to earnings than staggering growth of new policies.</li>
<li>Returns and profit growth are weak and this should matter more than a puritanical focus on new policies, embedded value.</li>
<li>Non-Operational line items, likely hedging costs and reserve adjustments, are cancelling out most all positives in operations.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) shows us that worsening policies in force is far more important to earnings than staggering growth of new policies.
Returns and profit growth are weak and this should matter more than a puritanical focus on new policies, embedded value.
Non-Operational line items, likely hedging costs and reserve adjustments, are cancelling out most all positives in operations.


Japan Post Insurance - Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi (8750 JP)</a> agreed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> for Pasona to sell its shares back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> in a buyback after Dai-Ichi's Tender Offer for Benefit.</li>
<li>This process gives Pasona a tax advantage versus selling into a Tender Offer at the same price.</li>
<li>What does Pasona take home? ~¥2,822/share versus its last price of ¥2,733/share. Then you have stubs ops (conservatively worth up to ~¥1,960/share) and Pasona's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bewith-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35846:1" rel="noopener">Bewith (9216 JP)</a> (~¥360/share).</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi (8750 JP) agreed with Pasona (2168 JP) for Pasona to sell its shares back to Benefit One (2412 JP) in a buyback after Dai-Ichi's Tender Offer for Benefit.
This process gives Pasona a tax advantage versus selling into a Tender Offer at the same price.
What does Pasona take home? ~¥2,822/share versus its last price of ¥2,733/share. Then you have stubs ops (conservatively worth up to ~¥1,960/share) and Pasona's stake in Bewith (9216 JP) (~¥360/share).


<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

Japan

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

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Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Shares will likely breach float requirements and be suspended at offer close. While trading through terms, recent precedent suggests that investors...

Arun George

Japan Post Insurance - Weakening Policies In Force and Meaningful Hits from Non-Operational Items

Weakening policies in force, high claims and operating costs, and substantial non-operational negatives, are cancelling out any positives in new...

Daniel Tabbush

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free

Pasona (2168 JP) said that 10-20% of the total extraordinary gain from the sale of Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) Is to be paid out as a special...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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