Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.</p></div><div><p>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</p></div><div>
<p>These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.</p>
<p>Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.</p>
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Dai Ichi Life Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Seemingly perpetually undervalued major Japanese life insurer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> after the close today <a href="https://www.dai-ichi-life-hd.com/en/newsroom/newsrelease/2020/pdf/index_029.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a new Mid Term Management Plan for the years 2021-2023, called "Re-Connect 2023."</p><p>The last medium-term plan had goals of delivering ¥250bn of Adjusted Profit in FY2020 (a goal it beat in FY2019 but will miss this year), ¥230bn of new business value in FY2020 - a number it hasn't come close to in the mid-term plan and will miss this year, a medium-long-term goal of average Embedded Value growth of 8.0%, a goal it has missed entirely with FY18 and FY19 coming in at -0.6% and -2.8%, and a solvency ratio of 170-200%. Last year was 195% and this year should be quite well above 200%. </p><p>Of more immediate importance, the Company also <a href="https://www.dai-ichi-life-hd.com/en/newsroom/newsrelease/2020/pdf/index_028.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an VERY BIG BUYBACK of "up to 170,000,000 shares" (15.25% of shares out) spending "up to ¥200 billion."</p><p>The headline is big. The actuality is smaller, but it is DEFINITELY worth a slightly deeper dive below.</p><p><em>It may even have an effect on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> because of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-japan-post-insurance-buyback-mooted-decks-cleared-time-to-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46429" rel="noopener">Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy</a> situation from last December (further discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-insurance-update-three-reasons-to-buy-any-overhang-slightly-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46862" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance Update - Three Reasons To Buy. Any Overhang Slightly Higher</a>).  </em></p>

Seemingly perpetually undervalued major Japanese life insurer Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) after the close today announced a new Mid Term Management Plan for the years 2021-2023, called "Re-Connect 2023."The last medium-term plan had goals of delivering ¥250bn of Adjusted Profit in FY2020 (a goal it beat in FY2019 but will miss this year), ¥230bn of new business value in FY2020 - a number it hasn't come close to in the mid-term plan and will miss this year, a medium-long-term goal of average Embedded Value growth of 8.0%, a goal it has missed entirely with FY18 and FY19 coming in at -0.6% and -2.8%, and a solvency ratio of 170-200%. Last year was 195% and this year should be quite well above 200%. Of more immediate importance, the Company also announced an VERY BIG BUYBACK of "up to 170,000,000 shares" (15.25% of shares out) spending "up to ¥200 billion."The headline is big. The actuality is smaller, but it is DEFINITELY worth a slightly deeper dive below.It may even have an effect on Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) because of the Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy situation from last December (further discussed in Japan Post Insurance Update - Three Reasons To Buy. Any Overhang Slightly Higher).  

Dai-Ichi Life (8750)'s New Mid-Term Plan and Very Big Buyback

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*A Poor Set Of Results: </em></strong>AIA Group (1299.HK) (AIA) reported 4Q20 Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 2.8 bn -  down 33% YOY, and net profit of USD 5.8 bn – down 3% over the period. 4Q20 VONB amounted to USD 639 mn, down 31% YOY.  The VONB decline can be attributed largely to weaker volumes and margins caused by mainland China’s new withholding tax, expense overruns in Hong Kong, along with product/mix shifts resultant of pandemic restrictions; and</p><p> <strong><em>*No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight:</em></strong> The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 66% YOY decline in VONB occurred as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.   </p>

*A Poor Set Of Results: AIA Group (1299.HK) (AIA) reported 4Q20 Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 2.8 bn -  down 33% YOY, and net profit of USD 5.8 bn – down 3% over the period. 4Q20 VONB amounted to USD 639 mn, down 31% YOY.  The VONB decline can be attributed largely to weaker volumes and margins caused by mainland China’s new withholding tax, expense overruns in Hong Kong, along with product/mix shifts resultant of pandemic restrictions; and *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 66% YOY decline in VONB occurred as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.   

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• THE POST-COVID ROTATION •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/288/original/2021-02-28_08-38-14.png?1614469105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191288"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/290/original/2021-02-28_08-57-32.png?1614470265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191290"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>THE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES</strong> - As we noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-post-covid-rotation-from-growth-to-value-begins-02-05-results-revisions-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47877" rel="noopener">The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins</a>, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>, <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Internet</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong> Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. </p><p><strong>PEAKED?</strong> - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.</p>

• THE POST-COVID ROTATION • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES - As we noted in The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were M3 (2413 JP),Lasertec (6920 JP), MonotaRO (3064 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), and Nidec (6594 JP), while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. PEAKED? - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the DETAIL Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1" rel="noopener">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Staples and Industrials, while decreasing on Information Technology, Real Estate and Health Care.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Industrials and Health Care, while decreasing on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-engineering-construct" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15916:1" rel="noopener">GS Engineering &amp; Construction (006360 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mobis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6089:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p></div><div>
<p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-sun-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:719:1" rel="noopener">E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT)</a>.</p>
<p>Following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop Corp Class A (GME US)</a> saga, we have added tables in each market with the largest stocks in terms of days of ADV to cover.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on BYD (1211 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and HKEX (388 HK) while there was short covering on Smoore International (6969 HK), Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). Shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Staples and Industrials, while decreasing on Information Technology, Real Estate and Health Care.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Olympus Corp (7733 JP), Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) while shorts decreased on Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Industrials and Health Care, while decreasing on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.In Korea, there were short positions put on in LG Display (034220 KS), GS Engineering &amp; Construction (006360 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) while shorts were covered in Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) while shorts were covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT).
Following the GameStop Corp Class A (GME US) saga, we have added tables in each market with the largest stocks in terms of days of ADV to cover.


Asia Short Interest: BYD, Smoore, GCL Poly, Olympus, Nomura, Anritsu, Netmarble, UMC, Innolux, Acer

Japan

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

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Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)

Pair Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We highlight potential trades among liquid large cap Asian financial stocks that are correlated and exhibit mean reversion. We recommend closing...

Brian Freitas

Dai-Ichi Life (8750)'s New Mid-Term Plan and Very Big Buyback

Dai-Ichi Life has for years been one of the Very Cheap Life Insurers globally. It seems they have gotten tired of this. The new mid-term plan...

Travis Lundy

AIA Group – Low Base Leverage

AIA GROUP: AIA posted a 4Q20 VONB decline of 33% YOY, largely due to weaker volumes and margins, expense overruns, and product/mix shifts due to...

Thomas J. Monaco

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Over the last 20 trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99, many market leaders have seen a significant correction, and there has been a...

Campbell Gunn

Asia Short Interest: BYD, Smoore, GCL Poly, Olympus, Nomura, Anritsu, Netmarble, UMC, Innolux, Acer

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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