HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In this Original, we have provided an analysis of why we believe APAC healthcare sector is poised for stellar growth in long-term, mainly driven by its favorable demographics.</li>
<li>We have handpicked four APAC healthcare companies, with market cap of $5 billion+ and ADTV of $5 million+ and analyzed their long-term growth stories and fundamentals.</li>
<li>In additions, we have also provided a table for stocks of interest in APAC healthcare sector.</li>
</ul>


In this Original, we have provided an analysis of why we believe APAC healthcare sector is poised for stellar growth in long-term, mainly driven by its favorable demographics.
We have handpicked four APAC healthcare companies, with market cap of $5 billion+ and ADTV of $5 million+ and analyzed their long-term growth stories and fundamentals.
In additions, we have also provided a table for stocks of interest in APAC healthcare sector.


Smartkarma Originals: APAC Healthcare Series - Top Picks Are Poised for Multi-Year Growth

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical </a>are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.</li>
<li>WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, Sino Biopharmaceutical are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.
WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.
Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

<ul>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo is investing $152M for building a new ADC manufacturing facility in Shanghai. Eisai has received approval for Urece in China as a treatment for gout patients with hyperuricemia.</li>
<li>Celltrion has announced its largest-ever dividend of KRW750 per share and 1:20 bonus shares. The record date for dividend payment and bonus share is December 31.</li>
<li>Metropolis Healthcare is acquiring Core Diagnostics, a prominent player in India’s specialized diagnostics sector for INR2.5B. CSPC Pharmaceutical has granted an exclusive license to Beigene for a clinical-stage drug candidate.</li>
</ul>


Daiichi Sankyo is investing $152M for building a new ADC manufacturing facility in Shanghai. Eisai has received approval for Urece in China as a treatment for gout patients with hyperuricemia.
Celltrion has announced its largest-ever dividend of KRW750 per share and 1:20 bonus shares. The record date for dividend payment and bonus share is December 31.
Metropolis Healthcare is acquiring Core Diagnostics, a prominent player in India’s specialized diagnostics sector for INR2.5B. CSPC Pharmaceutical has granted an exclusive license to Beigene for a clinical-stage drug candidate.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 15)-Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Celltrion, Metropolis Healthcare, CSPC Pharma

Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hansoh’s 24H1 results beat the expectations. Product revenue (excluding BD cooperation revenue) would achieve double-digit growth in 2024 full year, among which revenue of Ameile would maintain 20%+ YoY growth.</li>
<li>Total product revenue would be about RMB14-14.5 billion in the future. Based on P/S of 5, market value is RMB70-72.5 billion, which is the lower end of market value range.</li>
<li>There is still certain gap in terms of R&amp;D capability/globalization outlook between Hansoh and those leading biotech in China. So, we think valuation of Hansoh would be lower than them.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh’s 24H1 results beat the expectations. Product revenue (excluding BD cooperation revenue) would achieve double-digit growth in 2024 full year, among which revenue of Ameile would maintain 20%+ YoY growth.
Total product revenue would be about RMB14-14.5 billion in the future. Based on P/S of 5, market value is RMB70-72.5 billion, which is the lower end of market value range.
There is still certain gap in terms of R&amp;D capability/globalization outlook between Hansoh and those leading biotech in China. So, we think valuation of Hansoh would be lower than them.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692.HK) - Successful Business Transformation Opens up Valuation Upside

China

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company's products include vitamin C, antibiotics and common generic drugs. The Company is also engages in the development of innovative drugs and antibiotics.

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CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Smartkarma Originals: APAC Healthcare Series - Top Picks Are Poised for Multi-Year Growth

APAC healthcare is among the world’s fastest growing markets, thereby gaining importance from investors. We have highlighted 4 APAC healthcare...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 15)-Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Celltrion, Metropolis Healthcare, CSPC Pharma

The insight covers key developments in prominent APAC healthcare companies. These developments are expected to impact the financials of the...

Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692.HK) - Successful Business Transformation Opens up Valuation Upside

Hansoh's strong 24H1 results secure double-digit growth in 2024. However, valuation could be lower than leading biotech due to gap in R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Smartkarma Originals: APAC Healthcare Series - Top Picks Are Poised for Multi-Year Growth

APAC healthcare is among the world’s fastest growing markets, thereby gaining importance from investors. We have highlighted 4 APAC healthcare...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

​10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 15)-Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Celltrion, Metropolis Healthcare, CSPC Pharma

The insight covers key developments in prominent APAC healthcare companies. These developments are expected to impact the financials of the...

Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692.HK) - Successful Business Transformation Opens up Valuation Upside

​Hansoh's strong 24H1 results secure double-digit growth in 2024. However, valuation could be lower than leading biotech due to gap in R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Hansoh's strong 24H1 results secure double-digit growth in 2024. However, valuation could be lower than leading biotech due to gap in R&D...