Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; </li>
<li>The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and </li>
<li>As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. </li>
</ul>



Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; 
The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and 
As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. 


<ul>
<li>
Horta-Osorio Is Out:Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) (“Credit Suisse”) Chairman Antonio Horta-Osório abruptly resigned on January 16, 2022, following breaches of quarantine rules in both Switzerland and the United Kingdom;</li>
<li>
Lehmann Not Lehman:With CEO Gottstein’s alleged resistance to strategic change, we remain cautious that the current strategic direction of Credit Suisse will not be maintained;  and   </li>
<li>
Blunders Could Force Sale:There have been numerous costly high profile blunders at Credit Suisse in 2021. A reversion to the “Bad Old Days” could force a sale.   </li>
</ul>



Horta-Osorio Is Out:Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) (“Credit Suisse”) Chairman Antonio Horta-Osório abruptly resigned on January 16, 2022, following breaches of quarantine rules in both Switzerland and the United Kingdom;

Lehmann Not Lehman:With CEO Gottstein’s alleged resistance to strategic change, we remain cautious that the current strategic direction of Credit Suisse will not be maintained;  and   

Blunders Could Force Sale:There have been numerous costly high profile blunders at Credit Suisse in 2021. A reversion to the “Bad Old Days” could force a sale.   


<ul>
<li>Evergrande Is Breaking Down More Rapidly Than Banks Have Kept Up; </li>
<li>Minsheng Has Significant Exposure to Evergrande and Other Problem Developers; and </li>
<li>Minsheng Is Not Insolvent, But It Is Getting There Very Quickly. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande Is Breaking Down More Rapidly Than Banks Have Kept Up; 
Minsheng Has Significant Exposure to Evergrande and Other Problem Developers; and 
Minsheng Is Not Insolvent, But It Is Getting There Very Quickly. 


China Evergrande Group – More Casualties

<ul>
<li>Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments - Led By Negative Jaws;    </li>
<li>Credit Modestly Weaker, Although Reserve Coverage Remains Strong. Watch For Credit Turn; and </li>
<li>Progress On Asian Consumer Exits, But Sea Change In View On Mexico.   </li>
</ul>


Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments - Led By Negative Jaws;    
Credit Modestly Weaker, Although Reserve Coverage Remains Strong. Watch For Credit Turn; and 
Progress On Asian Consumer Exits, But Sea Change In View On Mexico.   


Citigroup – Many Moving Parts and Confused Mexican Exit

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. </li>
<li>No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. </li>
<li>Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. </li>
</ul>



Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. 
No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. 
Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. 


China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

China

CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the FTSE China A50 Index. The Fund invests most of its total assets in the equities of member companies of the FTSE China A50 Index. This is a RQFII fund.

CSOP FTSE China A50 (82822 HK)

Axis Bank – Lost In The Citi

AXIS: Axis has become the frontrunner to purchase Citi India's consumer business. This deal would result in a negative ROI of 1.0% to Axis.

Thomas J. Monaco

Credit Suisse Group – Lehmann Moment

CREDIT SUISSE: Credit Suisse Chairman Horta-Osório resigned following breaches of quarantine. With the CEO’s resistance to strategic change, we are...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – More Casualties

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande Is breaking down more rapidly. Minsheng has significant exposure to Evergrande and other problem developers. While Minsheng...

Thomas J. Monaco

Citigroup – Many Moving Parts and Confused Mexican Exit

CITI: Weaker results across almost all geographic segments. Credit is modesty weaker but coverage is strong. Progress on Asian consumer exits, but...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: A discussion over the use of gains and a drop in loss provisions during 3Q21 would have been a better use of time. CMB’s core...

Thomas J. Monaco