China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators such as M2 money supply growth rate and sales volumes growth for 'commercial residential' sector in terms of gross floor area sold, have been fairly good predictors of the direction of the house price growth. And the house price growth has followed a fairly consistent set of cycles over the past years, reflecting the sequence of policy easing and tightening moves.

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators such as M2 money supply growth rate and sales volumes growth for 'commercial residential' sector in terms of gross floor area sold, have been fairly good predictors of the direction of the house price growth. And the house price growth has followed a fairly consistent set of cycles over the past years, reflecting the sequence of policy easing and tightening moves.

A Cyclical Turning Point For China Property?

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis between June 2011 and June 2016, based on index data from SouFun CREIS. Looking at individual cities or even districts demonstrates how large the spread of performance can be across cities, even within one tier.The size-changing 'bubbles' capture monthly year-on-year changes in house prices at the city level, the size of the 'bubbles' reflects the growth…

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis between June 2011 and June 2016, based on index data from SouFun CREIS. Looking at individual cities or even districts demonstrates how large the spread of performance can be across cities, even within one tier.The size-changing 'bubbles' capture monthly year-on-year changes in house prices at the city level, the size of the 'bubbles' reflects the growth…

China Property - What's Really Happened To The House Prices Over The Past 6 Years?

China

CSC Financial Co., Ltd. provides investment management services. The Company offers investment banking, wealth management, and trading and institutional client services. CSC Financial conducts its business in Hong Kong.

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CSC Financial (6066 HK)

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016....

Rajan Govil

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY...

Robert Ciemniak

A Cyclical Turning Point For China Property?

A number of indicators point at an impending turning point for the aggregate level house price growth in China. Historically, a set of indicators...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - What's Really Happened To The House Prices Over The Past 6 Years?

In this one-minute animation (below) we illustrate the dynamics of the house price growth in China across 100 major cities on a monthly basis...

Robert Ciemniak

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