Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude's rally began on the coattails of the gas-coal energy crisis but is now running on its own steam. A correction looks unlikely.</li>
<li>Between an oversupplied market in 2020 and a swing to surplus projected for 2022, OPEC+ has only this year to recoup its Covid losses.</li>
<li>The US has no good options to tame gasoline prices. An SPR release or a crude export ban are both flawed. It may end up doing neither.</li>
</ul>


Crude's rally began on the coattails of the gas-coal energy crisis but is now running on its own steam. A correction looks unlikely.
Between an oversupplied market in 2020 and a swing to surplus projected for 2022, OPEC+ has only this year to recoup its Covid losses.
The US has no good options to tame gasoline prices. An SPR release or a crude export ban are both flawed. It may end up doing neither.


Weekly Oil Views: Crude Stuck in $80-85 Comfort Zone but May Remain Jumpy

Crude's rally on the back of gas shortages in Europe and a coal crunch in China over the past seven weeks has lifted Brent futures to successive three-year highs and WTI futures to levels not seen in seven years.There is some relief in sight for the energy crisis, with Europe due to start receiving more natural gas into its storages from Russia's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> and Chinese coal mines starting to ramp up output under government orders.However, with winter demand rising in tandem, the market may remain tightly balanced, sustained a fear premium in coal, gas and oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance adamantly sticking to its cautious tapering plan and keeping the global market undersupplied through the fourth quarter is also price-supportive.In this monthly report, we weigh the bullish and bearish factors in the market to assess the net impact on benchmark crude prices in the near term and the next three months.

Crude's rally on the back of gas shortages in Europe and a coal crunch in China over the past seven weeks has lifted Brent futures to successive three-year highs and WTI futures to levels not seen in seven years.There is some relief in sight for the energy crisis, with Europe due to start receiving more natural gas into its storages from Russia's Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) and Chinese coal mines starting to ramp up output under government orders.However, with winter demand rising in tandem, the market may remain tightly balanced, sustained a fear premium in coal, gas and oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance adamantly sticking to its cautious tapering plan and keeping the global market undersupplied through the fourth quarter is also price-supportive.In this monthly report, we weigh the bullish and bearish factors in the market to assess the net impact on benchmark crude prices in the near term and the next three months.

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that will then become stretched where a bigger top is due.Immediate trendline support under pressure in line with a pullback sequence.RSI rising wedge support break warns of a pullback but the lack of divergence calls for buying a corrective sequence (bull conviction).A new high near the 2013-14 congestion zone shows risk of an intermediate top zone in December.

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that will then become stretched where a bigger top is due.Immediate trendline support under pressure in line with a pullback sequence.RSI rising wedge support break warns of a pullback but the lack of divergence calls for buying a corrective sequence (bull conviction).A new high near the 2013-14 congestion zone shows risk of an intermediate top zone in December.

Crude Buy Support/New High and Bigger Top

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Crude slid 2% from multi-year highs after Iran agreed to resume nuclear talks</li>
<li>It will be a long road to a deal but oil price response was typical of speculative froth</li>
<li>Iran could boost crude supply by up to 1.3 million b/d, but likely not all at once </li>
<li>Supply hike won’t be in time to allay concerns over worsening winter energy crisis</li>
<li>Coal, gas shortages may gradually ease in coming weeks, preventing crude rebound</li>
<li>OPEC+ will find it tough to tighten reins in 2022, setting the stage for softer prices</li>
</ul>


Crude slid 2% from multi-year highs after Iran agreed to resume nuclear talks
It will be a long road to a deal but oil price response was typical of speculative froth
Iran could boost crude supply by up to 1.3 million b/d, but likely not all at once 
Supply hike won’t be in time to allay concerns over worsening winter energy crisis
Coal, gas shortages may gradually ease in coming weeks, preventing crude rebound
OPEC+ will find it tough to tighten reins in 2022, setting the stage for softer prices


Prospect of Iran Deal Becomes an Unlikely but Sticky Cap on Crude's Rally

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Stuck in $80-85 Comfort Zone but May Remain Jumpy

Crude's rally is now running on its own steam, boosted by a strong oil demand rebound and there are virtually no relief valves to boost supply...

Vandana Hari

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude's seven-week rally has stumbled a couple of times but not reversed course. It has staying power but limited upside but there may be brief...

Vandana Hari

Crude Buy Support/New High and Bigger Top

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that...

Thomas Schroeder

Prospect of Iran Deal Becomes an Unlikely but Sticky Cap on Crude's Rally

Crude's sell-off on news of Iran and world powers planning to resume nuclear deal talks has no support in fundamentals but the rally, now...

Vandana Hari

A Crude Update

Having met the topside target, Brent Crude is now in line for a bearish weekly reversal. Watch Friday's close. While a correction down on Oil seems...

Shyam Devani

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