Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman named new Saudi energy minister, replacing Khalid al-Falih</li>
<li>Recent high-level revamping moves point to an acceleration of Aramco IPO plan</li>
<li>No changes anticipated in Saudi policy as leader of OPEC/non-OPEC output curbs</li>
<li>IPO likely to shine light on Saudi Arabia slashing output way beyond its commitment 
</li>
<li>All eyes on new minister for approach on quota-busters, downward pressure on oil prices</li>
</ul>


Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman named new Saudi energy minister, replacing Khalid al-Falih
Recent high-level revamping moves point to an acceleration of Aramco IPO plan
No changes anticipated in Saudi policy as leader of OPEC/non-OPEC output curbs
IPO likely to shine light on Saudi Arabia slashing output way beyond its commitment 

All eyes on new minister for approach on quota-busters, downward pressure on oil prices


Saudi Arabia Has New Oil Minister: Won't Affect OPEC+ Strategy

Benchmark crude prices are being influenced by the twists and turns in the US-China trade war, macro-economic data and expectations over global growth, OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts, rising US oil output, and simmering Middle East tensions.While these routinely go in and out of headlines on the oil markets, how exactly is each one of them affecting oil price movements and what impact is it expected to have in the coming 3-6 months?In this succinct yet comprehensive report, we weigh all the major factors at play or perceived to be at play, classifying them as bullish, bearish or neutral, to provide you a bird's eye-view picture of the oil market, to enable informed decisions on trading oil sector equities and ETFs.

Benchmark crude prices are being influenced by the twists and turns in the US-China trade war, macro-economic data and expectations over global growth, OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts, rising US oil output, and simmering Middle East tensions.While these routinely go in and out of headlines on the oil markets, how exactly is each one of them affecting oil price movements and what impact is it expected to have in the coming 3-6 months?In this succinct yet comprehensive report, we weigh all the major factors at play or perceived to be at play, classifying them as bullish, bearish or neutral, to provide you a bird's eye-view picture of the oil market, to enable informed decisions on trading oil sector equities and ETFs.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude prices have become stuck in a groove.
The US-China trade war and oil demand growth worries continue to dominate sentiment. The daily twists and turns in that saga prompt knee-jerk about-turns in market sentiment and price direction, resulting in volatility, but within a relatively narrow range.
 Until the US-China conflict is resolved, or the world at least gets more clarity around the real intentions of the administrations in Beijing and Washington, we see little scope for crude to break sustainably out its current band – Brent around $60 and WTI around $55/barrel.
Meanwhile, US crude benchmark WTI's discount to Brent has narrowed to well under $5/barrel, levels not seen in a year.

Crude prices have become stuck in a groove.
The US-China trade war and oil demand growth worries continue to dominate sentiment. The daily twists and turns in that saga prompt knee-jerk about-turns in market sentiment and price direction, resulting in volatility, but within a relatively narrow range.
 Until the US-China conflict is resolved, or the world at least gets more clarity around the real intentions of the administrations in Beijing and Washington, we see little scope for crude to break sustainably out its current band – Brent around $60 and WTI around $55/barrel.
Meanwhile, US crude benchmark WTI's discount to Brent has narrowed to well under $5/barrel, levels not seen in a year. 

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Hemmed in by Trade War Shenanigans

Crude was battered into bear territory last week. Brent slipped below the $60/barrel mark, a floor OPEC is widely expected to try to defend.OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC collaborators agreed to roll over their 1.2 million b/d of combined production cuts for nine months to the end of March 2020 barely a month ago.Though expectations for global oil demand growth have weakened dramatically since then, getting all 24 producers on board for deeper cuts may prove to be an arduous task.If a global economic downturn appears on the horizon, OPEC+ may opt to make temporary peace with prices below their target levels.

Crude was battered into bear territory last week. Brent slipped below the $60/barrel mark, a floor OPEC is widely expected to try to defend.OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC collaborators agreed to roll over their 1.2 million b/d of combined production cuts for nine months to the end of March 2020 barely a month ago.Though expectations for global oil demand growth have weakened dramatically since then, getting all 24 producers on board for deeper cuts may prove to be an arduous task.If a global economic downturn appears on the horizon, OPEC+ may opt to make temporary peace with prices below their target levels.

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC May Be in No Rush to Cut Output Further

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Saudi Arabia Has New Oil Minister: Won't Affect OPEC+ Strategy

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman named new Saudi energy minister, replacing Khalid al-Falih Recent high-level revamping moves point to an acceleration...

Vandana Hari

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Benchmark crude prices are being influenced by the twists and turns in the US-China trade war, macro-economic data and expectations over global...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Hemmed in by Trade War Shenanigans

Crude prices have become stuck in a groove. The US-China trade war and oil demand growth worries continue to dominate sentiment. The daily twists...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC May Be in No Rush to Cut Output Further

Crude was battered into bear territory last week. Brent slipped below the $60/barrel mark, a floor OPEC is widely expected to try to defend.OPEC...

Vandana Hari

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)