Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Energy ministers of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance and Saudi Arabia once again surprised the market with their decision on April 1 to put more oil back into the market over May-July.Given the latest bout of oil demand worries on account of a third wave of Covid in Europe and daily cases measured on a global level on an upward trek once again, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia had been widely expected to extend their collective and additional unilateral production cuts respectively at least through May.The latest deal also flew in the face of OPEC's own downgrade earlier in the week of global oil demand recovery through the second quarter. The decision had compromise written all over it --  it may have been the only way to get a consensus and maintain cohesion in the 23-member group that was persuaded by Saudi Arabia to keep a lid on output from February through April.Counter-intuitively, crude futures closed 3-4% higher on Thursday, following the OPEC+ decision. Taking the latest OPEC+ moves into account and weighing the other major influences on oil market sentiment, our latest monthly Bulls &amp; Bears report gives you our view of how prices are likely to move over the next several days and the next three months.

Energy ministers of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance and Saudi Arabia once again surprised the market with their decision on April 1 to put more oil back into the market over May-July.Given the latest bout of oil demand worries on account of a third wave of Covid in Europe and daily cases measured on a global level on an upward trek once again, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia had been widely expected to extend their collective and additional unilateral production cuts respectively at least through May.The latest deal also flew in the face of OPEC's own downgrade earlier in the week of global oil demand recovery through the second quarter. The decision had compromise written all over it --  it may have been the only way to get a consensus and maintain cohesion in the 23-member group that was persuaded by Saudi Arabia to keep a lid on output from February through April.Counter-intuitively, crude futures closed 3-4% higher on Thursday, following the OPEC+ decision. Taking the latest OPEC+ moves into account and weighing the other major influences on oil market sentiment, our latest monthly Bulls &amp; Bears report gives you our view of how prices are likely to move over the next several days and the next three months.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

It was a week of tug boats and a tug-of-war.Multiple tug boats strained to refloat the giant container ship Ever Given, which ran aground in the Suez Canal Tuesday morning, and was continuing to block all traffic through the vital waterway at least until Saturday.And a tug-of-war unfolded over crude prices. After weeks of bulls being in charge, renewed oil demand worries amid a resurgent Covid in Europe and some other parts of the world has woken up the bears. Could a prolonged Suez blockage give fresh ammo to the bulls? We don't think so.That means the ball is  back in OPEC+’s court. When energy ministers of the 23-member alliance meet on April 1, it is hard to imagine them willing to risk putting more oil into the market in May.

It was a week of tug boats and a tug-of-war.Multiple tug boats strained to refloat the giant container ship Ever Given, which ran aground in the Suez Canal Tuesday morning, and was continuing to block all traffic through the vital waterway at least until Saturday.And a tug-of-war unfolded over crude prices. After weeks of bulls being in charge, renewed oil demand worries amid a resurgent Covid in Europe and some other parts of the world has woken up the bears. Could a prolonged Suez blockage give fresh ammo to the bulls? We don't think so.That means the ball is  back in OPEC+’s court. When energy ministers of the 23-member alliance meet on April 1, it is hard to imagine them willing to risk putting more oil into the market in May.

Weekly Oil Views: A Skittish Market Subdues Bulls, Puts Ball in OPEC+'s Court

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

The past few weeks have raised many questions about what is driving what. As yields have risen aggressively due to higher inflation expectations, there have been some concerns about the potential knock-on impact on financial markets generally, including some corners of the stock markets and emerging markets. However recent developments in Oil and stocks suggest we may go back to a more basic relationship between the different financial markets and that Bonds may even outperforming in the short term.

The past few weeks have raised many questions about what is driving what. As yields have risen aggressively due to higher inflation expectations, there have been some concerns about the potential knock-on impact on financial markets generally, including some corners of the stock markets and emerging markets. However recent developments in Oil and stocks suggest we may go back to a more basic relationship between the different financial markets and that Bonds may even outperforming in the short term.

A 9% pullback in crude prices last week from 22-month highs notched just a week ago was overdue and exactly as we had been predicting.However, just as Brent hovering around $70/barrel was in overbought territory, it overshot on the downside in last Thursday's dive. Prices staged a modest bounce on Friday and we expect them to crawl back up some more, but not all the way.But more sustainable gains may be awaiting just around the bend, if OPEC+ -- and especially Saudi Arabia -- see last week's jolt as confirmation of the fragility of demand recovery and decide to extend their production restraints for another month, into May.

A 9% pullback in crude prices last week from 22-month highs notched just a week ago was overdue and exactly as we had been predicting.However, just as Brent hovering around $70/barrel was in overbought territory, it overshot on the downside in last Thursday's dive. Prices staged a modest bounce on Friday and we expect them to crawl back up some more, but not all the way.But more sustainable gains may be awaiting just around the bend, if OPEC+ -- and especially Saudi Arabia -- see last week's jolt as confirmation of the fragility of demand recovery and decide to extend their production restraints for another month, into May.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's 9% Pullback May Prompt Continued OPEC+ Restraint

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

OPEC+ on Apr 1 decided to boost oil supply over May-Jul. Given a resurgent Covid, we see crude prices under pressure over the next several weeks...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: A Skittish Market Subdues Bulls, Puts Ball in OPEC+'s Court

A persistent resurgence of Covid in Europe, the US and some other parts of the world has stoked oil demand fears and pushed crude bulls aside....

Vandana Hari

FX Summary Discussion at End of Q1

A summary radio discussion on foreign exchange and other financial markets as we approach Q2. Topics include the US, Europe, China, Oil, Bonds, and...

Shyam Devani

Oil, Stocks, Bonds - Back to Basics

The recent weakness in Oil coupled with the bearish indication in equities may create a near term bid for Bonds as a more 'traditional'...

Shyam Devani

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's 9% Pullback May Prompt Continued OPEC+ Restraint

Crude crashed 9% from recent 22-month highs, jolted by Europe's Covid woes and a bout of fears over inflation in the financial markets. Expect...

Vandana Hari

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