Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Crude took a few serious knocks in the US election week, mostly as uncertainty over the outcome grew, including raising the spectre of worst-case scenarios of a drawn-out political chaos and violence on the streets.
But news of Joe Biden's electoral win on Saturday had calmed the markets and shored up sentiment in the oil complex on Monday. Though President Donald Trump has not yet conceded, it may be only a matter of time; his legal challenges are not expected to reverse the outcome. 
We take a look at how a Biden administration may impact the oil sector at home and overseas. On balance, it is neither clearly bullish nor bearish and may take a while to play out. So, don't rush in with any bets yet.
Meanwhile, with the distraction of US elections (mostly) over, the oil market will return to a focus on fundamentals, which continue to look weak. But the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may have a trick up its sleeve.

Crude took a few serious knocks in the US election week, mostly as uncertainty over the outcome grew, including raising the spectre of worst-case scenarios of a drawn-out political chaos and violence on the streets.
But news of Joe Biden's electoral win on Saturday had calmed the markets and shored up sentiment in the oil complex on Monday. Though President Donald Trump has not yet conceded, it may be only a matter of time; his legal challenges are not expected to reverse the outcome. 
We take a look at how a Biden administration may impact the oil sector at home and overseas. On balance, it is neither clearly bullish nor bearish and may take a while to play out. So, don't rush in with any bets yet.
Meanwhile, with the distraction of US elections (mostly) over, the oil market will return to a focus on fundamentals, which continue to look weak. But the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may have a trick up its sleeve.

Biden Win Neutral for Oil for Now, Market Focus Back on Fundamentals

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)</li>
<li>More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price</li>
<li>Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news </li>
<li>Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news</li>
<li>Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices</li>
<li>Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)
More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price
Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news 
Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news
Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices
Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators:  November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

WTI has broken key support at 37.50 which is an important level that represents the flat range support from the September and October lows. This follows our original bear call at 42-43 on the back of macro degree bear divergence which is expected to play out into year-end.The a-b-c flat is a correction bounce sequence and now followed by a fresh downside impulse that is already pressing 32 minor support with an attraction to 28 support noted. Such a fall will add to bear pressure in energy counters.

WTI has broken key support at 37.50 which is an important level that represents the flat range support from the September and October lows. This follows our original bear call at 42-43 on the back of macro degree bear divergence which is expected to play out into year-end.The a-b-c flat is a correction bounce sequence and now followed by a fresh downside impulse that is already pressing 32 minor support with an attraction to 28 support noted. Such a fall will add to bear pressure in energy counters.

Crude was battered down to five-month lows last week. We examine the durability of the reasons behind the dive, the power of any supportive or bullish factors on the horizon, and when put all together, what it means for the global oil market. 
In our "election special" section, we look at the four most likely scenarios after the US presidential and general elections close on November 3 and how the oil complex may react to each one of them, as an immediate response in the next few days.

Crude was battered down to five-month lows last week. We examine the durability of the reasons behind the dive, the power of any supportive or bullish factors on the horizon, and when put all together, what it means for the global oil market. 
In our "election special" section, we look at the four most likely scenarios after the US presidential and general elections close on November 3 and how the oil complex may react to each one of them, as an immediate response in the next few days.

Weekly Oil Views: Battered by Europe Lockdowns, Crude Awaits OPEC+ Rescue

<ul type="disc">
<li>Crude has settled into a narrow band once again, which is $41-43/barrel for Brent futures, but with a downside bias. Market fundamentals remain weak.</li>
<li> There are no external psychological support factors for the oil complex, either. Previous months' cheer from progress on the coronavirus vaccine front has faded, while the US stimulus deal negotiations ceased to be a prop more than a week ago. </li>
<li>The overall picture on the demand front continues to be dominated by worries of a resurgent virus stalling the recovery in Europe and the US.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, an expected supply boost of 2-3 million b/d from OPEC/non-OPEC producers from January is increasingly threatening to overwhelm the pace of demand recovery.</li>
<li>Aside from a planned tapering of the OPEC+ production cuts by 1.9 million b/d from January, Libya is poised to put an additional 1 million b/d into the market before year-end.</li>
<li>The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia last week opted for platitudes instead of addressing the looming oversupply. Are the de facto OPEC+ leaders drifting apart on market rebalancing strategy again? </li>
</ul>


Crude has settled into a narrow band once again, which is $41-43/barrel for Brent futures, but with a downside bias. Market fundamentals remain weak.
 There are no external psychological support factors for the oil complex, either. Previous months' cheer from progress on the coronavirus vaccine front has faded, while the US stimulus deal negotiations ceased to be a prop more than a week ago. 
The overall picture on the demand front continues to be dominated by worries of a resurgent virus stalling the recovery in Europe and the US.
Meanwhile, an expected supply boost of 2-3 million b/d from OPEC/non-OPEC producers from January is increasingly threatening to overwhelm the pace of demand recovery.
Aside from a planned tapering of the OPEC+ production cuts by 1.9 million b/d from January, Libya is poised to put an additional 1 million b/d into the market before year-end.
The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia last week opted for platitudes instead of addressing the looming oversupply. Are the de facto OPEC+ leaders drifting apart on market rebalancing strategy again? 


Weekly Oil Views: Brent Hones in on $41-43 Range but Prone to Skittish Slides

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Biden Win Neutral for Oil for Now, Market Focus Back on Fundamentals

A Biden win has bullish as well as bearish implications for oil. But they may balance out and take a while to play out. So hold your bets. For now,...

Vandana Hari

TMI Indicators: November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

Our text-mined commodity sentiment indicators see an overshoot in copper sentiment, a notable turnaround in iron ore sentiment, and potential signs...

Elan Gore

WTI Risk to 28 Below 32

WTI break of 37.50 support and a-b-c flat range will unleash bear pressure that will add to energy sector concerns. WTI is attracted to old highs...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Oil Views: Battered by Europe Lockdowns, Crude Awaits OPEC+ Rescue

Crude has been pummelled to 5-month lows. Europe lockdowns are weighing on the demand side, while Libyan supply gushing back into the market is...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Brent Hones in on $41-43 Range but Prone to Skittish Slides

Oil market fundamentals are weak. Demand recovery in Europe and the US is under a cloud from a second wave of Covid, while OPEC+ looks poised to...

Vandana Hari

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