Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high</li>
<li>Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases</li>
<li>In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered </li>
<li>Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight</li>
<li>Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high
Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases
In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered 
Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight
Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

The outlook for the global economy as well as the oil markets in 2021 has brightened with the rollout of vaccines, but zoom in from that big picture and there is plenty to worry, including uncertainties lurking around every corner.While the fight against the pandemic will clearly be the dominating influence on oil demand in 2021, the supply side may lose some of this year’s certainty as the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may be fighting an uphill battle to maintain cohesion.Geopolitical factors including simmering tensions in the Middle East, US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the US-China trade war took a back seat this year. These may be reactivated in 2021.We take a look at the major factors likely to shape the global oil markets in the new year.

The outlook for the global economy as well as the oil markets in 2021 has brightened with the rollout of vaccines, but zoom in from that big picture and there is plenty to worry, including uncertainties lurking around every corner.While the fight against the pandemic will clearly be the dominating influence on oil demand in 2021, the supply side may lose some of this year’s certainty as the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may be fighting an uphill battle to maintain cohesion.Geopolitical factors including simmering tensions in the Middle East, US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the US-China trade war took a back seat this year. These may be reactivated in 2021.We take a look at the major factors likely to shape the global oil markets in the new year.

CRUDE IN 2021: Poised for a Slow-Motion Bull Run

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

WTI met the 44 long level and is now kissing the 48 near term target where we expect a pullback in risk that will see the oil rally stall and a time to take some profits in oil this week.We are looking for a peak cycle in risk in mid-December for a pullback into late December where the bull sequence will resume.Fresh buy levels in WTI outlined as well as the XLE outperform cycle with late December viewed as a buying opportunity.

WTI met the 44 long level and is now kissing the 48 near term target where we expect a pullback in risk that will see the oil rally stall and a time to take some profits in oil this week.We are looking for a peak cycle in risk in mid-December for a pullback into late December where the bull sequence will resume.Fresh buy levels in WTI outlined as well as the XLE outperform cycle with late December viewed as a buying opportunity.

WTI Rally Target with Energy Picking up Slack

Crude has continued to rally to fresh nine-month highs in December, on the back of Covid vaccine euphoria.But the market sentiment is caught in a tug of war between the light at the end of the Covid tunnel and a raging virus, especially in Europe and North America, that is dampening economic activity and oil demand.What is the oil market outlook for the next few weeks and for the first quarter of 2021? We weigh all the factors current and anticipated, in this one-page dashboard with dials showing our sentiment for both periods.

Crude has continued to rally to fresh nine-month highs in December, on the back of Covid vaccine euphoria.But the market sentiment is caught in a tug of war between the light at the end of the Covid tunnel and a raging virus, especially in Europe and North America, that is dampening economic activity and oil demand.What is the oil market outlook for the next few weeks and for the first quarter of 2021? We weigh all the factors current and anticipated, in this one-page dashboard with dials showing our sentiment for both periods.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

TMI's commodity sentiment indicators saw improved breadth in December as restocking continues to drive reflation; but China macro momentum may have...

Elan Gore

CRUDE IN 2021: Poised for a Slow-Motion Bull Run

What does 2021 hold for oil as the commodity emerges from this year's Covid shock? We examine the main factors in place to influence the course of...

Vandana Hari

WTI Rally Target with Energy Picking up Slack

WTI is meeting the 48 target, we outlined fresh long support into late December as well as level to add to energy exposure (XLE) as the outperform...

Thomas Schroeder

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude has hit 9-month highs. But sentiment is caught between vaccine optimism for the future and current pandemic realities. We look in our crystal...

Vandana Hari

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

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