Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Though we pride ourselves on doing a good job of generally pointing our readers in the right direction even in the most confounding and noisy of market situations, it’s not often that we have a chance to say we were prophetic.“Pandemic punctuates crude rally, expect more of the same” was our last weekly oil views headline.  “Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter,” we said. Last week’s crude price moves bore us out.  This week, we take a look at the factors eroding vaccine optimism in the oil complex and the impact of the second and third waves of the virus on European and US oil demand. Meanwhile, the impact of US President Joe Biden's executive orders directly and indirectly related to the energy markets is a slow burn; don't expect a price response in the short term.

Though we pride ourselves on doing a good job of generally pointing our readers in the right direction even in the most confounding and noisy of market situations, it’s not often that we have a chance to say we were prophetic.“Pandemic punctuates crude rally, expect more of the same” was our last weekly oil views headline.  “Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter,” we said. Last week’s crude price moves bore us out.  This week, we take a look at the factors eroding vaccine optimism in the oil complex and the impact of the second and third waves of the virus on European and US oil demand. Meanwhile, the impact of US President Joe Biden's executive orders directly and indirectly related to the energy markets is a slow burn; don't expect a price response in the short term.

Weekly Oil Views: Demand Worries Begin to Chip Away Crude's Big Gains

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis.

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis. 

The first week of January saw crude in the throes of a bull run on the back of a surprise Saudi cut. We stuck our neck out to say the market had a blinkered view and would need to reconcile the crimp in demand from a raging pandemic and associated restrictions.
We were on the right track. Brent surged to fresh 11-month highs above $56 last Tuesday but the rally stalled in the second half of the week (shrugging off Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package) and prices slid by just over 2% on Friday.
Remember the theme of our year-end special report? We called for a “slow-motion bull run” in 2021. The new year is only a fortnight old, but the tug-of-war between vaccine optimism and Covid realism is playing out just as we expected.
Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter, potentially through H1 2021.

The first week of January saw crude in the throes of a bull run on the back of a surprise Saudi cut. We stuck our neck out to say the market had a blinkered view and would need to reconcile the crimp in demand from a raging pandemic and associated restrictions.
We were on the right track. Brent surged to fresh 11-month highs above $56 last Tuesday but the rally stalled in the second half of the week (shrugging off Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package) and prices slid by just over 2% on Friday.
Remember the theme of our year-end special report? We called for a “slow-motion bull run” in 2021. The new year is only a fortnight old, but the tug-of-war between vaccine optimism and Covid realism is playing out just as we expected.
Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter, potentially through H1 2021.

Weekly Oil Views: Pandemic Punctuates Crude Rally, Expect More of the Same

Saudi Arabia shocked the oil market and even took its OPEC/non-OPEC peers by surprise on January 5 by declaring a 1 million b/d unilateral production cut in February and March.
It followed a stalemate at an OPEC+ energy ministers' meeting the previous day, with the Kingdom pushing for OPEC+ to roll over January production targets to February in view of fresh concerns over a resurgent Covid curbing oil demand, and Russia insisting on a 500,000 b/d boost.
Crude prices jumped 8% on a weekly basis to highs not seen since February 2020.
But was it a masterstroke by Saudi Arabia or did it score an own goal? We give you our take.
A festering Covid crisis in Europe and the US and growing risks to demand posed by new outbreaks in China and parts of Asia have appears to have slipped into the oil market’s blind spot. A reconciliation may soon be called for.

Saudi Arabia shocked the oil market and even took its OPEC/non-OPEC peers by surprise on January 5 by declaring a 1 million b/d unilateral production cut in February and March.
It followed a stalemate at an OPEC+ energy ministers' meeting the previous day, with the Kingdom pushing for OPEC+ to roll over January production targets to February in view of fresh concerns over a resurgent Covid curbing oil demand, and Russia insisting on a 500,000 b/d boost.
Crude prices jumped 8% on a weekly basis to highs not seen since February 2020.
But was it a masterstroke by Saudi Arabia or did it score an own goal? We give you our take.
A festering Covid crisis in Europe and the US and growing risks to demand posed by new outbreaks in China and parts of Asia have appears to have slipped into the oil market’s blind spot. A reconciliation may soon be called for. 

Weekly Oil Views: Market Cheers Saudi Cut but Has a Blinkered View

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Demand Worries Begin to Chip Away Crude's Big Gains

The pandemic continues to punctuate crude's rally, exactly as we foreshadowed in our last weekly insight. We weigh the relative impact of the...

Vandana Hari

The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX

New year celebrations are over and there are bumps along the road for Equity and USD trends - beware we are going over one now.

Shyam Devani

Weekly Oil Views: Pandemic Punctuates Crude Rally, Expect More of the Same

Crude emerged from under the spell of the surprise Saudi output cut, took in the grim Covid situation, and prices pulled back last week. Expect a...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Market Cheers Saudi Cut but Has a Blinkered View

Crude spiked 8% in the first week of 2021 following a surprise unilateral Saudi production cut of 1 million b/d over Feb-Mar. Will it stick?

Vandana Hari

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities also breaking a 12.5-year downtrend....

Vermilion Research

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