Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

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US employment data, retail sales, consumer confidence, mobility metrics and oil consumption figures are all bolstering the narrative of the world's largest economy roaring back to life.The Europe Union is turning from being a drag to supportive for oil sentiment as the pandemic showing signs of abating in the worst-hit economies and vaccination drives are picking up pace. The Chinese economy remains on a steady growth path. In stark contrast, the other Asian economic giant India is battling a Covid catastrophe. But the oil complex is discounting the worst-case scenario on oil demand slump in the world's third-largest consuming country. How do the positives and negatives for global oil demand recovery stack up and what does it mean for oil prices in the short term? After weighing the key factors, we have a Neutral view for the very near-term and a Moderately Bullish view for the next three months on crude prices.

US employment data, retail sales, consumer confidence, mobility metrics and oil consumption figures are all bolstering the narrative of the world's largest economy roaring back to life.The Europe Union is turning from being a drag to supportive for oil sentiment as the pandemic showing signs of abating in the worst-hit economies and vaccination drives are picking up pace. The Chinese economy remains on a steady growth path. In stark contrast, the other Asian economic giant India is battling a Covid catastrophe. But the oil complex is discounting the worst-case scenario on oil demand slump in the world's third-largest consuming country. How do the positives and negatives for global oil demand recovery stack up and what does it mean for oil prices in the short term? After weighing the key factors, we have a Neutral view for the very near-term and a Moderately Bullish view for the next three months on crude prices.

BULLS & BEARS: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude cooled off from one-month highs last week with a 2-3% pullback in Brent and WTI futures but appeared to have bottomed out, with a modest bounce up by Friday.  
India’s Covid spike is brutal but the country is avoiding another national lockdown, opting instead for a combination of localised curfews and tightened restrictions over weekends. Oil demand is expected to ease after hitting levels not seen since November 2019 in March, but not crumble.
Meanwhile, the US economy continues to stride towards normalcy and leisure travel is picking up, albeit within national borders. Across the pond, the UK may finally be out of the woods and continental Europe is picking up the pieces on its vaccination drive and gearing up to open its borders to summer holiday travellers.
We expect crude to begin inching up again, with a possibly stronger upward momentum returning in May.

Crude cooled off from one-month highs last week with a 2-3% pullback in Brent and WTI futures but appeared to have bottomed out, with a modest bounce up by Friday.  
India’s Covid spike is brutal but the country is avoiding another national lockdown, opting instead for a combination of localised curfews and tightened restrictions over weekends. Oil demand is expected to ease after hitting levels not seen since November 2019 in March, but not crumble.
Meanwhile, the US economy continues to stride towards normalcy and leisure travel is picking up, albeit within national borders. Across the pond, the UK may finally be out of the woods and continental Europe is picking up the pieces on its vaccination drive and gearing up to open its borders to summer holiday travellers.
We expect crude to begin inching up again, with a possibly stronger upward momentum returning in May.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Dips on India Covid Woes but Summer Optimism Sustains

The bullish narrative of the world being on the cusp of controlling Covid had been overshadowed by Europe’s renewed Covid woes between mid-March and mid-April. Last week, it stormed back centre-stage and propped Brent and WTI futures to one-month highs.A string of upbeat US macro-economic data for March and was reinforced by a jump in the country’s weekly fuel sales. OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration as well the International Energy Agency synchronously upgraded their 2021 global oil demand forecasts, adding to the gathering upward momentum.The problem with the rally is that the unbridled optimism is based on a blinkered view. The pandemic is far from over. The latest 7-day average of global count of new daily cases stands above 736,000, almost on par with the all-time-high hit around January 11. A handful of more transmissible coronavirus mutants are triggering fresh outbreaks. Some  may be deadlier while others may be able to evade antibodies and thus render the current jabs ineffective.  Vaccination drives continue to suffer setbacks.So, what now? Crude has overshot to the upside and will need to reconcile by replacing the rosy US portrait with a very mixed and uncertain global picture.

The bullish narrative of the world being on the cusp of controlling Covid had been overshadowed by Europe’s renewed Covid woes between mid-March and mid-April. Last week, it stormed back centre-stage and propped Brent and WTI futures to one-month highs.A string of upbeat US macro-economic data for March and was reinforced by a jump in the country’s weekly fuel sales. OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration as well the International Energy Agency synchronously upgraded their 2021 global oil demand forecasts, adding to the gathering upward momentum.The problem with the rally is that the unbridled optimism is based on a blinkered view. The pandemic is far from over. The latest 7-day average of global count of new daily cases stands above 736,000, almost on par with the all-time-high hit around January 11. A handful of more transmissible coronavirus mutants are triggering fresh outbreaks. Some  may be deadlier while others may be able to evade antibodies and thus render the current jabs ineffective.  Vaccination drives continue to suffer setbacks.So, what now? Crude has overshot to the upside and will need to reconcile by replacing the rosy US portrait with a very mixed and uncertain global picture.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Overshoots in Rebound to One-Month Highs

We said in our Bulls &amp; Bears report last week that crude's 3-4% higher settle on April 1 was incongruous with OPEC+'s decision earlier in the day to ramp up supply by about 2 million b/d over May-July, that prices would pull back and become range-bound in the low-$60s for Brent for the very near term. That is exactly what transpired.What next? Equal and opposite forces working on oil market sentiment -- major among them signs of the US economy picking up steam while Europe remains in the Covid doldrums and fresh hotspots emerge across Asia -- have left crude price in a limbo.When they break out of the current range, it is more likely to be upwards rather than downwards. The latest OPEC+ decision was a dampener but we believe the alliance, and especially Saudi Arabia with its recently-introduced unilateral output cuts, will walk back some of the planned supply boosts if they see crude remaining under downward pressure.Also in this report, our take on the implications of the US and Iran launching "indirect" talks last week to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

We said in our Bulls &amp; Bears report last week that crude's 3-4% higher settle on April 1 was incongruous with OPEC+'s decision earlier in the day to ramp up supply by about 2 million b/d over May-July, that prices would pull back and become range-bound in the low-$60s for Brent for the very near term. That is exactly what transpired.What next? Equal and opposite forces working on oil market sentiment -- major among them signs of the US economy picking up steam while Europe remains in the Covid doldrums and fresh hotspots emerge across Asia -- have left crude price in a limbo.When they break out of the current range, it is more likely to be upwards rather than downwards. The latest OPEC+ decision was a dampener but we believe the alliance, and especially Saudi Arabia with its recently-introduced unilateral output cuts, will walk back some of the planned supply boosts if they see crude remaining under downward pressure.Also in this report, our take on the implications of the US and Iran launching "indirect" talks last week to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Caught in a Time and Geographic Deadlock

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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BULLS & BEARS: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

US economic cheer and signs of the EU turning a corner on Covid are more than countering headwinds from India's brutal second wave, causing an...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Dips on India Covid Woes but Summer Optimism Sustains

Crude priced in demand fears over India's Covid crisis with a dip last week, but is poised to resume an upward trek. US economy is steaming ahead,...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Overshoots in Rebound to One-Month Highs

Crude snapped out of a pessimistic limbo last week to jump to one-month highs, but with a blinkered view. US growth is not a panacea and Covid woes...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Caught in a Time and Geographic Deadlock

Crude is caught in a limbo, between diverging economic fortunes across the Atlantic and a tussle between future optimism and present pragmatism....

Vandana Hari

US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch

A more cautionary short term picture is beginning to unfold indicating lower US 10 year yield which raises questions for other markets including US...

Shyam Devani

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