China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

CRRC (1766.HK), the only locomotive and rolling stock manufacturer in China, has its share performance underperformed in the past one year. Will recent policy boost to the investment in the projects in public transport system help? (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-tentatively-turns-on-the-railway-spending-tap-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22925">China Tentatively Turns on the Railway Spending Tap Again</a>). We believe recent positive tone on polices may not bring a marginal valuation rerating, given current valuation, 16x P/E on 2018E Bloomberg consensus, is not attractive compared to CRRC's P/E history since the merger in 2015. However, we believe CRRC's earnings would trend up in 2018-20E. Sales increase from MUs  (Multiple Units for HSR) with increasing delivery milage of HSR would be the key earnings driver in 2018-19E. Sales increase from locomotive and freight wagon would add some fuel. In 2020E, sales from rapid transit vehicle (urban rail trains) would double to drive CRRC's earnings, when sales from rail equipment turns to be flattish.

CRRC (1766.HK), the only locomotive and rolling stock manufacturer in China, has its share performance underperformed in the past one year. Will recent policy boost to the investment in the projects in public transport system help? (China Tentatively Turns on the Railway Spending Tap Again). We believe recent positive tone on polices may not bring a marginal valuation rerating, given current valuation, 16x P/E on 2018E Bloomberg consensus, is not attractive compared to CRRC's P/E history since the merger in 2015. However, we believe CRRC's earnings would trend up in 2018-20E. Sales increase from MUs  (Multiple Units for HSR) with increasing delivery milage of HSR would be the key earnings driver in 2018-19E. Sales increase from locomotive and freight wagon would add some fuel. In 2020E, sales from rapid transit vehicle (urban rail trains) would double to drive CRRC's earnings, when sales from rail equipment turns to be flattish.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Spending on railway has been relatively lacklustre over the last 3 years.  After the correction in 2011 post the Wenzhou rail disaster China's spending on railways had an uptrend till 2015 when it reached around RMB 824bn. Since then the spending has flat lined over the past 3 years and this year the annual plan was for investment in railways to decline 8%y/y.However there seems to be a change of thought on railway spending over the last month.  The latest State Council executive meeting and…

Spending on railway has been relatively lacklustre over the last 3 years.  After the correction in 2011 post the Wenzhou rail disaster China's spending on railways had an uptrend till 2015 when it reached around RMB 824bn. Since then the spending has flat lined over the past 3 years and this year the annual plan was for investment in railways to decline 8%y/y.However there seems to be a change of thought on railway spending over the last month.  The latest State Council executive meeting and…

China Tentatively Turns on the Railway Spending Tap Again

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This is a new H/A Spread monitor project which attempts to give a brief look at recent changes in H-Share and A-Share spreads based on various influences and sector patterns. 
<h2>H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes over 1wk, 4wks and Changes in Southbound Flow</h2>
The first set of tables below show...
<ul>
<li class="">the discount of the major H-share listed companies to their respective A-share,</li>
<li class="">the change in discount over 1-week and 4-weeks (positive number means the H has outperformed the A),</li>
<li class="">a measure of decile…</li>
</ul>

This is a new H/A Spread monitor project which attempts to give a brief look at recent changes in H-Share and A-Share spreads based on various influences and sector patterns. 
H-Share/A-Share Discounts, Changes over 1wk, 4wks and Changes in Southbound Flow
The first set of tables below show...

the discount of the major H-share listed companies to their respective A-share,
the change in discount over 1-week and 4-weeks (positive number means the H has outperformed the A),
a measure of decile…


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Shares Discounts & Southbound Flows 20180112

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Today's report provides a synopsis of the technical state of emerging markets, along with actionable countries and a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.  Among the topics we highlight include:<ul><li>Brazil is reassuming a leadership role. BRIC markets continue to outperform the broad EM Index, and we recommend overweighting this segment. Within the group, Brazil is particularly attractive. The Bovespa Index, which broke out in Sept. above secular resistance, exhibits a timely pullback opportunity. Add exposure/overweight.</li><li>Actionable countries. In addition to Brazil, attractive set-ups include: Korea (the KOSPI is pulling back to support), Russia (the RTSI is consolidating above the 200-day MA, and South Africa (JSE has pulled back to base support).</li><li>Sector strength. Tech’s long-term leadership status remains intact. Stay overweight until its relative strength trend breaks down. Other sectors exhibiting improving relative strength: Energy, Materials, and Health Care.</li></ul>

Today's report provides a synopsis of the technical state of emerging markets, along with actionable countries and a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.  Among the topics we highlight include:Brazil is reassuming a leadership role. BRIC markets continue to outperform the broad EM Index, and we recommend overweighting this segment. Within the group, Brazil is particularly attractive. The Bovespa Index, which broke out in Sept. above secular resistance, exhibits a timely pullback opportunity. Add exposure/overweight.Actionable countries. In addition to Brazil, attractive set-ups include: Korea (the KOSPI is pulling back to support), Russia (the RTSI is consolidating above the 200-day MA, and South Africa (JSE has pulled back to base support).Sector strength. Tech’s long-term leadership status remains intact. Stay overweight until its relative strength trend breaks down. Other sectors exhibiting improving relative strength: Energy, Materials, and Health Care.

Emerging Markets: Outlook and Recommendations

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

China

CRRC Corporation Limited manufactures rolling stock products. The Company produces locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, vehicles key components, and other products. CRRC also provides vehicle repairing, investment management, and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CRRC Corp Ltd A (601766 CH)

CRRC: On the Right Track

CRRC (1766.HK), the only locomotive and rolling stock manufacturer in China, has its share performance underperformed in the past one year. Will...

Victoria Li

China Tentatively Turns on the Railway Spending Tap Again

Spending on railway has been relatively lacklustre over the last 3 years. After the correction in 2011 post the Wenzhou rail disaster China's...

Victoria Li

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Shares Discounts & Southbound Flows 20180112

This is a new H/A Spread monitor project which attempts to give a brief look at recent changes in H-Share and A-Share spreads based on various...

Travis Lundy

Emerging Markets: Outlook and Recommendations

Today's report provides a synopsis of the technical state of emerging markets, along with actionable countries and a wide variety of bottom-up...

Vermilion Research

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)