US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. </li>
<li>KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. </li>
<li>There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. 
KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. 
There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. 


Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Elastic just dramatically raised its revenue guidance for FY2025...implying a massive acceleration in revenue growth that the 18% move in the stock underplayed.</li>
<li>Dynatrace is a wildly profitable software company trading at a significant discount to its Rule of 40 metrics.</li>
<li>The overall observability space is red hot, unimpacted by macro factors and being overlooked by software investors.</li>
</ul>


Elastic just dramatically raised its revenue guidance for FY2025...implying a massive acceleration in revenue growth that the 18% move in the stock underplayed.
Dynatrace is a wildly profitable software company trading at a significant discount to its Rule of 40 metrics.
The overall observability space is red hot, unimpacted by macro factors and being overlooked by software investors.


Observability Is Not Just Datadog: Why Elastic and Dynatrace Are Great Longs

<ul>
<li>The 'Financial Viability' (GAAP earnings) criterion is the main obstacle that keeps companies out of the S&amp;P 500 and overall S&amp;P 1500.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> are past examples of companies that got added to S&amp;P 500 after passing the GAAP Earnings criterion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snowflake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29254:1" rel="noopener">Snowflake (SNOW US)</a> are currently ineligible for S&amp;P 500 inclusion due to failing the GAAP Earnings eligibility requirement. </li>
</ul>


The 'Financial Viability' (GAAP earnings) criterion is the main obstacle that keeps companies out of the S&amp;P 500 and overall S&amp;P 1500.

Uber Technologies (UBER US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) are past examples of companies that got added to S&amp;P 500 after passing the GAAP Earnings criterion.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) and Snowflake (SNOW US) are currently ineligible for S&amp;P 500 inclusion due to failing the GAAP Earnings eligibility requirement. 


S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Exclusion by Earnings

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Rubrik, a data security company and leader in cyber-recovery, completed its IPO and sold 23.5M Class A shares to the public at $32.00/share in May.</li>
<li>The technology company reported a mixed quarter pushing shares down over 8% during regular trading session. Q1 FY25 net loss was ~$732M due to massive stock-based comp.</li>
<li>However, subscription ARR increased 46% y/y and cloud ARR jumped 104% y/y indicating continued strength in the company’s Rubrik Security Cloud offering.</li>
</ul>


Rubrik, a data security company and leader in cyber-recovery, completed its IPO and sold 23.5M Class A shares to the public at $32.00/share in May.
The technology company reported a mixed quarter pushing shares down over 8% during regular trading session. Q1 FY25 net loss was ~$732M due to massive stock-based comp.
However, subscription ARR increased 46% y/y and cloud ARR jumped 104% y/y indicating continued strength in the company’s Rubrik Security Cloud offering.


Rubrik: Long Path To Profitability, Massive Stock-Based Comp in Q1 FY25, PT Reduced To $46.00

United States

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity products and services to stop breaches. The Company offers cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, and leading threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. CrowdStrike serves customers worldwide.

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Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

Observability Is Not Just Datadog: Why Elastic and Dynatrace Are Great Longs

Observability software stocks are being overlooked in the recent valuation downdraft. Elastic is our top pick...it had a massive revenue guidance...

Aaron Gabin

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Exclusion by Earnings

GAAP earnings is the key factor determining final eligibility of large companies for the S&P 500 with Uber and CrowdStrike getting added after...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Rubrik: Long Path To Profitability, Massive Stock-Based Comp in Q1 FY25, PT Reduced To $46.00

Rubrik stock currently trades below IPO price of $32.00/share. Data security company completed its IPO in May and raised ~$750M. With a recent sell...

Andrei Zakharov

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S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

Observability Is Not Just Datadog: Why Elastic and Dynatrace Are Great Longs

Observability software stocks are being overlooked in the recent valuation downdraft. Elastic is our top pick...it had a massive revenue guidance...

Aaron Gabin

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Exclusion by Earnings

GAAP earnings is the key factor determining final eligibility of large companies for the S&P 500 with Uber and CrowdStrike getting added after...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Rubrik: Long Path To Profitability, Massive Stock-Based Comp in Q1 FY25, PT Reduced To $46.00

Rubrik stock currently trades below IPO price of $32.00/share. Data security company completed its IPO in May and raised ~$750M. With a recent sell...

Andrei Zakharov

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...