Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering <em>intra-review</em> index replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) - HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering intra-review index replacements.
Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>The 2020/2023 uptrend has delivered unbelievable gains. With the uptrend at historic new highs, it is difficult to identify targets and key resistance levels (using regular charts).</li>
<li>Today we turn to the quarterly LOG chart and identify 400/410 as the next major resistance level and H1 2023 target (+20%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The 2020/2023 uptrend has delivered unbelievable gains. With the uptrend at historic new highs, it is difficult to identify targets and key resistance levels (using regular charts).
Today we turn to the quarterly LOG chart and identify 400/410 as the next major resistance level and H1 2023 target (+20%).


Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) - Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Schneider Electric Infrastructure / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interacted with channels associated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skf-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4984:1" rel="noopener">SKF India Ltd (SKF IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schneider-electric-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16778:1" rel="noopener">Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  </li>
<li>SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.</li>
</ul>


We interacted with channels associated with SKF India Ltd (SKF IN) , Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) &amp; Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN).
Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  
SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.


India Channel Insight #48 | SKF, Schaeffler, Schneider

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Back in November 2020, M M Murugappan retired and Vellayan Subbiah joined the board as Chairman. At the time, the move seemed like a non-event, as it seemed like a group-wide replacement than a targeted role. But subsequently the CEO, Arun Alagappan, cousin of Vellayan Subbiah, who joined as Executive Director in 2017 and was elevated to CEO not too long ago in 2019, also resigned in Jan 2021. Meanwhile, since Nov 2020, there has been an increasing emphasis from RBI on converting large NBFCs into banks. These events together have translated this seemingly innocuous move (Vellayan Subbiah joining as Chairman) into a meaningful leadership change at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cholamandalam-investment-and-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17583:1" rel="noopener">Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN)</a> ["Chola"]. Going by the commentary from Vellayan Subbiah at the recent earnings call, this can potentially lead to long-run transformational changes at Chola. Below we share the history of Chola and the role Vellayan Subbiah has played in shaping it, to put in perspective our favorable view on the leadership change and highlight what could be in store for Chola.</p>

Back in November 2020, M M Murugappan retired and Vellayan Subbiah joined the board as Chairman. At the time, the move seemed like a non-event, as it seemed like a group-wide replacement than a targeted role. But subsequently the CEO, Arun Alagappan, cousin of Vellayan Subbiah, who joined as Executive Director in 2017 and was elevated to CEO not too long ago in 2019, also resigned in Jan 2021. Meanwhile, since Nov 2020, there has been an increasing emphasis from RBI on converting large NBFCs into banks. These events together have translated this seemingly innocuous move (Vellayan Subbiah joining as Chairman) into a meaningful leadership change at Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN) ["Chola"]. Going by the commentary from Vellayan Subbiah at the recent earnings call, this can potentially lead to long-run transformational changes at Chola. Below we share the history of Chola and the role Vellayan Subbiah has played in shaping it, to put in perspective our favorable view on the leadership change and highlight what could be in store for Chola.

Leadership Change Alert | Chola Investment: Vellayan Is Back; Watch Out for Transformational Leap

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> announced the acquisition of an 80.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22568" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22568:1">ABB Ltd (ABBN VX)</a>’s power grids business for $6.4 billion. ABB will retain the remaining stake in the divested unit, which is valued at an EV of $11 billion. ABB’s power grids is a global #1 player and makes transformers, long distance electricity-transmission systems and energy storage units.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Setting aside the huge cultural and integration challenges, we believe that Hitachi’s acquisition of ABB’s power grids is a bold but a risky move.</p></div>

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) announced the acquisition of an 80.1% stake in ABB Ltd (ABBN VX)’s power grids business for $6.4 billion. ABB will retain the remaining stake in the divested unit, which is valued at an EV of $11 billion. ABB’s power grids is a global #1 player and makes transformers, long distance electricity-transmission systems and energy storage units.Setting aside the huge cultural and integration challenges, we believe that Hitachi’s acquisition of ABB’s power grids is a bold but a risky move.

Hitachi (6501 JP): A Bold but Risky Acquisition of ABB’s Power Grids

India

CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited manufactures, distributes, installs and services electrical and allied equipment. The Company offers transformers, reactors, switchgear control equipment and accessories, industrial motors, pumps, and communication systems. CG Power and Industrial Solutions serves customers globally. 

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Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Apart from the HDFC merger-related intra-review change, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index (and the NIFTY Next 50 index) but I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA