Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Inspired by <a href="https://thetranscript.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"The Transcript"</a>, We build our very own version of the same called "The Narrative".</p>
<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </p>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand environment and overall Industry, Consumer behaviour and premiumisation, Commodity costs, Pricing action, new product launches, Capex, PLI, Inventory, Competition and market share, Exports, E-commerce, Competitiveness with China and Future outlook.   </p>
<p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amber-enterprises-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32202:1" rel="noopener">Amber Enterprises India (AMBER IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-electricals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9615:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symphony-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1" rel="noopener">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttk-prestige-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9779:1" rel="noopener">TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)</a></p>

Inspired by "The Transcript", We build our very own version of the same called "The Narrative".
The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand environment and overall Industry, Consumer behaviour and premiumisation, Commodity costs, Pricing action, new product launches, Capex, PLI, Inventory, Competition and market share, Exports, E-commerce, Competitiveness with China and Future outlook.   
Companies covered include Amber Enterprises India (AMBER IN), Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN) , Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN) , Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) , TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Household Durables - AMBER, BJE, CROMPTON, SYML, TTKPT

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>HSIE Results Daily Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Banks (KMB) 1QFY22 performance was broadly in line with our estimates on the back of continued funding cost tailwinds resulting in sequentially stronger NIMs even as loans shrank 2.8% QoQ. Annualised slippages were up at 2.8% (FY21: 2.4%) as collections were affected during Apr-May21 on account of the second wave (as witnessed by peers), with most of the stress emerging from secured retail portfolio. KMB maintained its stock of COVID provisions and the loan loss coverage at ~65%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

HSIE Results Daily Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Banks (KMB) 1QFY22 performance was broadly in line with our estimates on the back of continued funding cost tailwinds resulting in sequentially stronger NIMs even as loans shrank 2.8% QoQ. Annualised slippages were up at 2.8% (FY21: 2.4%) as collections were affected during Apr-May21 on account of the second wave (as witnessed by peers), with most of the stress emerging from secured retail portfolio. KMB maintained its stock of COVID provisions and the loan loss coverage at ~65%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Market leader in the domestic fan industry with value market share of 24%. The company has increased focus on increasing market share in home appliances categories like (air coolers, water heater and kitchen appliances) Robust balance sheet with RoE &amp; RoCE of 34% &amp; 39% (three-year average), respectively, with stringent working capital policy...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Market leader in the domestic fan industry with value market share of 24%. The company has increased focus on increasing market share in home appliances categories like (air coolers, water heater and kitchen appliances) Robust balance sheet with RoE &amp; RoCE of 34% &amp; 39% (three-year average), respectively, with stringent working capital policy...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

<p>Crompton's FY21 Annual Report focuses on the five-dimensional growth strategy adopted over the pandemic-affected year. Launching new products and deepening the reach within existing product categories were among the key focus areas for the year...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Crompton's FY21 Annual Report focuses on the five-dimensional growth strategy adopted over the pandemic-affected year. Launching new products and deepening the reach within existing product categories were among the key focus areas for the year...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

<ul>
<li>While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments</li>
<li>The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.</li>
<li>A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze</li>
<li>With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter</li>
</ul>


While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments
The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.
A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze
With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter


India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

India

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited manufactures consumer electrical products. The Company offers fans, lamps, luminaires, and pumps, as well as a variety of other household appliances.

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)

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Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Household Durables - AMBER, BJE, CROMPTON, SYML, TTKPT

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks.

Pranav Bhavsar

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and More

HSIE Results Daily Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Banks (KMB) 1QFY22 performance was broadly in line with our estimates on the back of...

HDFC Securities

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrials

Market leader in the domestic fan industry with value market share of 24%. The company has increased focus on increasing market share in home...

ICICI Securities Limited

Strong FCF with robust balance sheet

Crompton's FY21 Annual Report focuses on the five-dimensional growth strategy adopted over the pandemic-affected year. Launching new products and...

Motilal Oswal

India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments The...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

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