Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Equity Bottom-Up

Credit Suisse stock has been strongly oversold (-61% since July 2015), trading on price/book of 0.51x and 6.6% dividend yield. You can get close to 4.5 years of upside optionality for only CHF0.87 in premium.Recommendation date: 7-Jul-2016Recommended size: 2% of AUM (in option premium spent)

Credit Suisse stock has been strongly oversold (-61% since July 2015), trading on price/book of 0.51x and 6.6% dividend yield. You can get close to 4.5 years of upside optionality for only CHF0.87 in premium.Recommendation date: 7-Jul-2016Recommended size: 2% of AUM (in option premium spent) 

Long CSGN VX (Credit Suisse Group) Dec '20 14-Strike Calls at CHF0.87

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I was fascinated by the reporting and then the responses to the Panama Papers, which implicates to some extent several high profile figures. I would agree that in many cases this can be press noise, and some push back is warranted. But I want to focus on implications for banks, directly and indirectly. Over the years I had the pleasure and the pain of working for BNP, UBS, Credit Suisse and Citigroup. Many of us have worked for banks. My geographical cross-sections have been spread across…

I was fascinated by the reporting and then the responses to the Panama Papers, which implicates to some extent several high profile figures. I would agree that in many cases this can be press noise, and some push back is warranted. But I want to focus on implications for banks, directly and indirectly. Over the years I had the pleasure and the pain of working for BNP, UBS, Credit Suisse and Citigroup. Many of us have worked for banks. My geographical cross-sections have been spread across…

The Source of Bank Funny Business, Some Examples

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)

Long CSGN VX (Credit Suisse Group) Dec '20 14-Strike Calls at CHF0.87

Credit Suisse stock has been strongly oversold (-61% since July 2015), trading on price/book of 0.51x and 6.6% dividend yield. You can get close to...

Asymmetric Payoffs

The Source of Bank Funny Business, Some Examples

I was fascinated by the reporting and then the responses to the Panama Papers, which implicates to some extent several high profile figures. I...

Charles De Trenck

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

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