New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q24 core profit was the peak of 2024, growing 18% and 24% YoY, respectively, and exceeding expectations by 7% and 2% .</li><li>We maintain our projection for an 11% CAGR in two-year profit growth, driven by higher sales and gross profit margin, both internally and through synergies from the group's business restructuring.</li><li>The valuation metrics support a buy view from a fundamental perspective, as the stock price implies 27% upside, alongside long- term growth in line with the sector.</li></ul>

4Q24 core profit was the peak of 2024, growing 18% and 24% YoY, respectively, and exceeding expectations by 7% and 2% .We maintain our projection for an 11% CAGR in two-year profit growth, driven by higher sales and gross profit margin, both internally and through synergies from the group's business restructuring.The valuation metrics support a buy view from a fundamental perspective, as the stock price implies 27% upside, alongside long- term growth in line with the sector.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have been the strongest of 2024E, with projected growth of 10% QoQ and 24% YoY.</li><li>Two-year profit growth is anticipated to achieve a CAGR of 13%, driven by higher sales and improved gross margins, supported by both organic growth and business synergy gains from the group’s restructuring efforts.</li><li>Based on the valuation metrics, the outlook has been revised to buy on the current fundamentals (previously neutral), with the stock offering a 29% upside and limited downside risk (previously limited upside).</li></ul>

The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have been the strongest of 2024E, with projected growth of 10% QoQ and 24% YoY.Two-year profit growth is anticipated to achieve a CAGR of 13%, driven by higher sales and improved gross margins, supported by both organic growth and business synergy gains from the group’s restructuring efforts.Based on the valuation metrics, the outlook has been revised to buy on the current fundamentals (previously neutral), with the stock offering a 29% upside and limited downside risk (previously limited upside).

Cp Axtra - Expect 4Q24E Earnings Growth YoY and QoQ and 2024E Growth at 24%

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. </li>
<li>Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra's business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  </li>
<li>The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. </li>
</ul>



CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. 
Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra's business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  
The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent CP ALL by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. 


CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) - Governance Concerns over Property Investment

<ul><li>Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.</li><li>However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.</li><li>Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). </li></ul>

Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). 

Cp Axtra - CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

<ul><li>The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.</li><li>In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).</li><li>We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). </li></ul>

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). 

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

Thailand

CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates a retail discount store chain. The Company sells food and consumer products to its registered customers including wholesalers, retailers, small businesses, caterers, and private individuals who hold its member cards. CP Axtra serves customers in Thailand.

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CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)

CP Axtra - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Outperform), with a 12M forward fair value of Bt34.40, based on a required return of 3.2%.

Forsyth Barr

Cp Axtra - Expect 4Q24E Earnings Growth YoY and QoQ and 2024E Growth at 24%

Two-year profit growth is anticipated to achieve a CAGR of 13%, driven by higher sales and improved gross margins, supported by both organic growth...

Krungthai XSpring

CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) - Governance Concerns over Property Investment

CP Axtra has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project called the...

Angus Mackintosh

Cp Axtra - CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate...

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past...

Krungthai XSpring

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