Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 15th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 15th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.</li><li>Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades

<ul><li>Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.</li><li>While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.</li><li>These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. </li></ul>

Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. 

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

Thailand

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

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CP ALL (CPALL-R TB)

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Bumrungrad Hospital, CP ALL, SCC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained...

Krungthai XSpring

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