Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding  / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.</li><li>The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.</li><li>Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.</li></ul>

Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Shu Hui Woon

Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Country Garden's H1/22 results were in line with our expectations. Contracted sales plunged 40% y-o-y, in line with the industry average of 30-40%. Positively, the company managed to maintain the cash collection rate at above 90%, and the leverage metrics remained broadly stable. That said, the H1/22 gross margin came under pressure at 11% (lower than most peers). Additionally, the average sell-through rate stood at only 50%, which could result in cash being trapped in developments with low demand.

  Country Garden's H1/22 results were in line with our expectations. Contracted sales plunged 40% y-o-y, in line with the industry average of 30-40%. Positively, the company managed to maintain the cash collection rate at above 90%, and the leverage metrics remained broadly stable. That said, the H1/22 gross margin came under pressure at 11% (lower than most peers). Additionally, the average sell-through rate stood at only 50%, which could result in cash being trapped in developments with low demand. 

Country Garden - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

  The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days. 

Chinese Property Weekly - 26 August 2022 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-oil-and-gas-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Oil And Gas</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li><li><a href='/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shimao Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kwg-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kwg Property Holding</a></li><li><a href='/entities/seazen' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:China Oil And GasGeely AutoShimao Property HoldingsKwg Property HoldingSeazen (Formerly Future Land)and more...

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.</li>
<li>Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Country Garden - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

Country Garden's H1/22 results were in line with our expectations. Contracted sales plunged 40% y-o-y, in line with the industry average of...

Lucror Analytics

Chinese Property Weekly - 26 August 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 26 Aug 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)