China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.<ol><li>While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…</li></ol>

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data from SouFun-CREIS, though with highly divergent performance across the cities. The strong index-level price growth this year has been largely driven by Shenzhen, Shanghai and cities near the Tier-1 cities, benefiting from spill-over effect: Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai and Zhongshan near Shenzhen, Kunshan near Shanghai, Baoding and Langfang near Beijing…

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data from SouFun-CREIS, though with highly divergent performance across the cities. The strong index-level price growth this year has been largely driven by Shenzhen, Shanghai and cities near the Tier-1 cities, benefiting from spill-over effect: Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai and Zhongshan near Shenzhen, Kunshan near Shanghai, Baoding and Langfang near Beijing…

China House Prices in April Increased at Faster Pace Overall, Highly Divergent Across Cities

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:<ul><li>Interest rate risk in the banking book</li><li>Prudential treatment of problem assets</li><li>Revisions to BIS III leverage ratio</li><li>Constraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightings</li><li>Pillar 3 disclosure requirements</li><li>Revisions to operational risk framework</li><li>Revised framework for market risk capital requirements</li><li>Identification and measurement of step-in risk</li></ul>Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:Interest rate risk in the banking bookPrudential treatment of problem assetsRevisions to BIS III leverage ratioConstraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightingsPillar 3 disclosure requirementsRevisions to operational risk frameworkRevised framework for market risk capital requirementsIdentification and measurement of step-in riskSource: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

This is an update to the Dah Sing Ka Ching series.  So Dah Sing Ka Ching Lah*!Since the series started January 13, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589">Dah Sing Financial Holdings</a> (DSFH) (measured a full trading day after publishing) is up 32%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:342">Dah Sing Banking Group Ltd</a> (which was a long tilt) is up 11%. The DSFH long/short trade against the suggested shorts is up 12-35% depending on whether you put on the first trade and left it there (+12%) or followed the suggestions in the Feb 5 and Mar 21 pieces you see in the Insight Stream…

This is an update to the Dah Sing Ka Ching series.  So Dah Sing Ka Ching Lah*!Since the series started January 13, Dah Sing Financial Holdings (DSFH) (measured a full trading day after publishing) is up 32%, Dah Sing Banking Group Ltd (which was a long tilt) is up 11%. The DSFH long/short trade against the suggested shorts is up 12-35% depending on whether you put on the first trade and left it there (+12%) or followed the suggestions in the Feb 5 and Mar 21 pieces you see in the Insight Stream…

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

April Trade Data and FX Reserve

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured. April exports were...

Christopher Balding

China House Prices in April Increased at Faster Pace Overall, Highly Divergent Across Cities

China house prices for 100 major cities overall continued to rise at faster pace, 9% y/y compared to 7.4% a month earlier, according to new data...

Robert Ciemniak

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow...

Daniel Tabbush

Dah Sing - Ka Ching Lah!

This is an update to the Dah Sing Ka Ching series. So Dah Sing Ka Ching Lah*!Since the series started January 13, Dah Sing Financial...

Travis Lundy

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

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