Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on December 31, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for December - expected to be published on January 18.

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on December 31, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for December - expected to be published on January 18.  

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

Macroeconomics

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing only a slight deceleration in new home (residential gross floor area) sales growth to +5.4% year-to-date year-on-year, from +5.6% in October and +7.6% in September.  This indicates more resilient sales volumes than broadly expected but in line with what the weekly data for 13 major cities indicated over the last few weeks.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing only a slight deceleration in new home (residential gross floor area) sales growth to +5.4% year-to-date year-on-year, from +5.6% in October and +7.6% in September.  This indicates more resilient sales volumes than broadly expected but in line with what the weekly data for 13 major cities indicated over the last few weeks. 

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 3 focuses on the key housing market indicators and the developer stock prices.

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 3 focuses on the key housing market indicators and the developer stock prices. 

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 2 focuses on how sales volumes and land sales can help predict the house price growth.

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 2 focuses on how sales volumes and land sales can help predict the house price growth.

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 2): Predictive Powers In China House Prices, Sales Volumes, Land Sales

Today's NBS house price data for October continues to show the further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities but with a slightly stronger growth than we forecast, decelerating from +6.3% y/y in September to +5.4% (+6.5% to +5.7% non-weighted) in October. The m/m growth rate picked up from +0.2% in September to +0.3% in October.

Today's NBS house price data for October continues to show the further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities but with a slightly stronger growth than we forecast, decelerating from +6.3% y/y in September to +5.4% (+6.5% to +5.7% non-weighted) in October. The m/m growth rate picked up from +0.2% in September to +0.3% in October.

China House Price Growth Decelerated Further Y/​Y But Accelerated M/M - Today's NBS Data For October

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 2): Predictive Powers In China House Prices, Sales Volumes, Land Sales

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Further Y/Y But Accelerated M/M - Today's NBS Data For October

Today's NBS house price data for October continues to show the further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities but with a...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 2): Predictive Powers In China House Prices, Sales Volumes, Land Sales

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Further Y/​Y But Accelerated M/M - Today's NBS Data For October

Today's NBS house price data for October continues to show the further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities but with a...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Further Y/Y But Accelerated M/M - Today's NBS Data For October