Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.</li>
<li>Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).</li>
<li>Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.
Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).
Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

<ul>
<li>In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.</li>
<li>When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11021:1" rel="noopener">Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP)</a>, 6.58% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12970:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP)</a>. In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.</li>
<li>That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.</li>
</ul>


In the mid-late teens, four refinery groups merged to create two refinery groups - JX and Tonen General became JXTG under ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and Idemitsu took over ShowaShell.
When Idemitsu got ShowaShell, it got 50+% in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP), 6.58% of Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP). In 2020, they tried to buy in Toa.
That was delayed by an activist. Today, Idemitsu announced they had gone to 23% in Fuji Oil. That stake will go up before it goes down.


Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Idemitsu has bought two corporate stakes in Fuji Oil to go from 6+% to nearly 22%. This is not a big surprise. There's history. Medium-long-term, a...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

Murakami-san's "grouping" crept to 4.98% in holdco Mitsui Matsushima over 5wks, then launched to 20% in 5 days. The stock is up big. Actual exit...

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu (5019): First SumiChem's, Now JERA's Stake in Fuji Oil (5017) To Go to 22%. It's Coming...

Idemitsu has bought two corporate stakes in Fuji Oil to go from 6+% to nearly 22%. This is not a big surprise. There's history. Medium-long-term, a...

Travis Lundy

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...