Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX ekes out +0.3% gains; Only Tech &amp; Telcos Positive while other 9 sectors in the Red; Fed's dot plot says 5.1%;  Hinderburg takes aim at BLOCK (Square)</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9 as US Rate hike fears wane;  Japan ends export restrictions on semi materials to S. Korea; Softbank's ARM to change pricing rules</li>
<li>NUGGET. Japan's Hay Fever Hell: Few Winners, Many Losers. Winners: drugstores, pharmacists, e-commerce; Losers: everyone related to Outdoor activities !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX ekes out +0.3% gains; Only Tech &amp; Telcos Positive while other 9 sectors in the Red; Fed's dot plot says 5.1%;  Hinderburg takes aim at BLOCK (Square)
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9 as US Rate hike fears wane;  Japan ends export restrictions on semi materials to S. Korea; Softbank's ARM to change pricing rules
NUGGET. Japan's Hay Fever Hell: Few Winners, Many Losers. Winners: drugstores, pharmacists, e-commerce; Losers: everyone related to Outdoor activities !


Good Morning Japan |Dot Plot Says 5.1%; Tech Leads Gains; NUGGET: Japan's Hay Fever Hell-Few Winners

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 14 February 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. </li>
<li>Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. </li>
<li>However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. </li>
</ul>


On 14 February 2023, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. 
Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. 
However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. 


Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

<ul>
<li>YFO offered another <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000022.000071768.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Press Release</a> yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.</li>
<li>The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.</li>
<li>NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors <em>"capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  </em>Soft war starts now.</li>
</ul>


YFO offered another Press Release yesterday. This one outlines what they see as Corporate Governance failures and offers a NEW POLICY.
The Corporate Governance failures are indeed, failures. Toyo's Board has failed to be transparent with shareholders, and in not at least addressing the takeover proposal, has failed its duties.
NEW POLICY? Elect new independent directors "capable of improving the long-term corporate value and maximizing the interests of the general shareholders."  Soft war starts now.


YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Dot Plot Says 5.1%; Tech Leads Gains; NUGGET: Japan's Hay Fever Hell-Few Winners

NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash while the USD/JPY exchange rate was 130.9 as fears over US interest rate hikes moderates. With lower rate hike expectations,...

Mark Chadwick

Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

Idemitsu (5019) announced a bad Q3 result, with petroleum products doing very badly. Full-year forecasts are lowered. A buyback was announced,...

Travis Lundy

YFO To Take the Fight To Toyo Construction's Board

YFO has come out with another statement on Toyo Construction while Toyo remains curiously quiet. There's more detail which should distress...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

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