Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout</li>
<li>The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead</li>
<li>Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term</li>
</ul>


The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout
The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead
Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.</p><p>Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI</p>

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

<p>In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overhead</p><p>However, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The <strong>London Metals Exchange Index</strong> is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.</p><p>As a consequence, even though there <em>might</em> be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.</p>

In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overheadHowever, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The London Metals Exchange Index is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.As a consequence, even though there might be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p>Our dollar domino top theme is now bleeding into metals strength as the Euro marks a key bull reversal turn.</p><div>We shorted the USD vs CAD (1.2850), GBP (1.3450) and AUD (0.7190) ahead of the DXY topping call at 94.50 with a bet the Euro would lag a key low which it has. </div><div></div><div>A weaker USD will support our gold and copper long bets (ties in with our A50 breakout/long call).</div><div></div><div>We have a ST yield top in for the US 10yr but remains the bigger input that will drive a mild USD pullback or bigger decline.</div>

Our dollar domino top theme is now bleeding into metals strength as the Euro marks a key bull reversal turn.We shorted the USD vs CAD (1.2850), GBP (1.3450) and AUD (0.7190) ahead of the DXY topping call at 94.50 with a bet the Euro would lag a key low which it has. A weaker USD will support our gold and copper long bets (ties in with our A50 breakout/long call).We have a ST yield top in for the US 10yr but remains the bigger input that will drive a mild USD pullback or bigger decline.

<p>Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.</p><p>Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA</p>

Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Australia’s Bullish Prospects

The breakout in Australia's stock market looks encouraging especially when coupled with indications in other related markets.

Shyam Devani

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

We are upgrading Financials to overweight; Financial Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to...

Vermilion Research

Oil Target Met but Metals on the Up

Brent Crude has effectively met the $85 target with major levels just overhead. While some relief may be seen here, Metals are moving up which...

Shyam Devani

Dollar Decline to Support Metals Rally

Our dollar domino top theme (CAD, GBP, AUD lead) is now bleeding into metals strength as the Euro marks a key bull reversal turn. Bullish copper...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

Financials (XLF) are on the cusp of a breakout above $39, while copper is on the cusp of a breakout above $4.38; breakouts above resistance would...

Vermilion Research

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