Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. </li>
<li>We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.</li>
<li>We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. 
We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. </li>
<li>We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week, BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week

Featuring Colin Hamilton, Commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, Metal Matters discusses the hot topics in Global Metals & Mining each week.

<ul>
<li>Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada</li>
<li>The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security</li>
<li>The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada
The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security
The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. </li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lundin-mining-lun-cn-cheap-play-on-copper" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168213" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper.</a> </li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 


Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

We summarize our estimates for copper demand for FY25. Market participants are increasingly bullish on copper, but China's demand must pick up for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

We initiate First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), a Canadian copper miner with assets in Zambia/Panama. We analyze the bull-bear spread and risk to the...

Sameer Taneja

What We Foresee for the Four C’s

Export restrictions have impacted trade, with a focus on direct trade between China and the US in the mineral industry, while the incoming US...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

The copper market remains range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How...

Sameer Taneja

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