Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.</li>
<li>There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 0.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, China Yangtze Power, and Luxshare. AH Premia bounced, but net volumes are suspect.
There is some question as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Making EV itself doesn't make money, which is why independents like Nio and XPeng are thinking alternative ways to breakeven;</li>
<li>Tesla envisioned to make money through scale, of which BYD bettered. Tesla also envisioned to make money from autonomous driving (ADS);</li>
<li>Nio plans to sell its battery swapping service while XPeng is selling ADS to Volkswagen. Both are experiments aiming at breakeven. Both also have new models to launch.</li>
</ul>


Making EV itself doesn't make money, which is why independents like Nio and XPeng are thinking alternative ways to breakeven;
Tesla envisioned to make money through scale, of which BYD bettered. Tesla also envisioned to make money from autonomous driving (ADS);
Nio plans to sell its battery swapping service while XPeng is selling ADS to Volkswagen. Both are experiments aiming at breakeven. Both also have new models to launch.


New Experiments in China's Crowded EV Space

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>CATL announced its 1Q24 net profit of CNY9.2B (+19% YoY), which straight out blew past market expectations </li>
<li>The fear of ever-declining battery prices is overstated, as CATL has clearly shown it can take lower margins and boost ROEs via higher inventory turnover and high utilisation rates  </li>
<li>Our fair value of CNY253 <strong>(+27% UPSIDE)</strong> is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations </li>
</ul>


CATL announced its 1Q24 net profit of CNY9.2B (+19% YoY), which straight out blew past market expectations 
The fear of ever-declining battery prices is overstated, as CATL has clearly shown it can take lower margins and boost ROEs via higher inventory turnover and high utilisation rates  
Our fair value of CNY253 (+27% UPSIDE) is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations 


Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 2.3bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, some financials.</li>
<li>As outperformed Hs on Monday and Tuesday (when both were open), then Hs rocketed on Thursday and Friday. As will have to catch up early in the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 2.3bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, some financials.
As outperformed Hs on Monday and Tuesday (when both were open), then Hs rocketed on Thursday and Friday. As will have to catch up early in the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.</li>
<li>Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

China

Sungrow Power Supply Company Limited develops, produces, sells and provides services for solar PV inverters, wind power converters and other power supply. The Company also provides system solutions to renewable energy industry users.

NARI Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells automation products for electricity distribution, converting stations, coal-fired power plants, and industrial process. The Company also provides services and system integration.

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and sells connectors. The Company's products are widely used in computers, communication devices, consumer electronics products and automobiles.

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited manufactures power generation equipment. The Company produces and sells thermal generator set, nuclear power units, wind power equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, and other products. Shanghai Electric Group also manufactures environmental protection equipment.

Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited manufactures and sells hydro and steam power generators and AC/DC electric motors. The Company also provides repair, upgrade, maintenance, and other services for the products.

Dongfang Electric Corporation (600875 CH)

Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets optic cables, optic fibers, electric cable materials and accessories, related components, and related controlling systems.

Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH)

Sieyuan Electric Company Limited manufactures and markets power supply and converting equipment as well as high voltage electrical apparatus and high voltage monitoring instruments.  The Company's  main products include arc suppression coils, variable frequency power sources, lightning arrester on-line monitoring instruments, and anti-disturbance test instruments.

EVE Energy Co., Ltd researches, manufactures and sells lithium battery.  The Company also provides portable power source solutions.

TBEA Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electrical transformers, wires and cables, and other accessory equipment. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manages real estate.

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. provides and integrates train-borne electrical systems for the PRC Railway industry.  The Company also develops, manufactures, and sells train power converters, auxiliary power supply equipment and control systems for trains for urban rail systems

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

Hubbell Incorporated manufactures electrical and electronic products for commercial, industrial, utility, and telecommunications markets.  The Company's products include plugs, receptacles, connectors, lighting fixtures, high voltage test and measurement equipment, and voice and data signal processing components. Hubbell operates in the United States and overseas.

ABB India Limited undertakes engineering and construction projects and manufactures heavy engineering and industrial equipment. The Company undertakes projects in the field of energy production, power transmission, transportation, process automation and pollution control. ABB India's products include pollution control equipment, switch gears and high current rectifiers.

Enphase Energy Inc. manufactures solar power solutions. The Company offers solutions to increase productivity and reliability of solar modules.

Emerson Electric Co. designs and manufactures electronic and electrical equipment, software, systems and services for industrial, commercial and consumer markets worldwide through its network power, process management, industrial automation, climate technologies and commercial & residential solutions divisions.

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets electronic equipment.  The Company's products include industrial machinery, heavy electric machinery, data communications systems, electronic devices, and consumer electronics.

AMETEK, Inc. is a global manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices. The Company manufactures advanced instruments for process, aerospace, power and industrial markets and is a supplier of electrical interconnects, specialty metals, technical motors and systems, and floor care and specialty motors.

Rockwell Automation, Inc. produces industrial automation products. The Company offers products such as control systems, motor control devices, sensors, and industrial control panels. Rockwell Automation markets its products worldwide.

Eaton Corporation PLC manufactures engineered products for the industrial, vehicle, construction, commercial, and aerospace markets. The Company offers products including hydraulic products and fluid connectors, electrical power distribution and control equipment, truck drivetrain systems, engine components, and a wide variety of controls. Eaton conducts business in Dublin, Ireland.

Prysmian SpA develops, designs, produces, supplies and installs a wide range of cables for applications in the energy and telecommunications industries.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

Weaker volumes, lower nets. NORTHBOUND now clearly buying CATL and Luxshare and finance and utilities. Selling some tech. The question which arises...

Travis Lundy

New Experiments in China's Crowded EV Space

Chinese EV makers are trying to breakeven by trying new business models and launching new cars. We believe they have challenges. Buying battery...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected

CATL's 1Q24 net profit exceeded expectations, showing it can maintain profitability despite fears of declining battery prices. Fair value suggests...

Mohshin Aziz

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

NORTHBOUND saw net buying and in general A-shares outperformed HK stocks on Monday and Tuesday, but mainland markets were closed the rest of the...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND's net buy the previous week was a one-off perhaps. This week saw heavy net selling across the board. Not index-weighted.

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024): Weak Net Buy, Weak Gross, Idiosyncratic Flows

Weaker volumes, lower nets. NORTHBOUND now clearly buying CATL and Luxshare and finance and utilities. Selling some tech. The question which arises...

Travis Lundy

New Experiments in China's Crowded EV Space

Chinese EV makers are trying to breakeven by trying new business models and launching new cars. We believe they have challenges. Buying battery...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected

​CATL's 1Q24 net profit exceeded expectations, showing it can maintain profitability despite fears of declining battery prices. Fair value suggests...

Mohshin Aziz

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

NORTHBOUND saw net buying and in general A-shares outperformed HK stocks on Monday and Tuesday, but mainland markets were closed the rest of the...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND's net buy the previous week was a one-off perhaps. This week saw heavy net selling across the board. Not index-weighted.

Travis Lundy

CATL's 1Q24 net profit exceeded expectations, showing it can maintain profitability despite fears of declining battery prices. Fair value suggests...