New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options</li><li>1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more muted</li><li>Operating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends</li></ul>

Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more mutedOperating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a 1H23 result well down on 1H22, but in line with expectations</li><li>CEN also released a soft January 2023 operating result of NZ$30m, the lowest January in the past nine years, although it was impacted by trading losses</li><li>CEN is on the cusp of delivering strong earnings momentum, albeit that requires a turnaround in recent operating statistics</li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a 1H23 result well down on 1H22, but in line with expectationsCEN also released a soft January 2023 operating result of NZ$30m, the lowest January in the past nine years, although it was impacted by trading lossesCEN is on the cusp of delivering strong earnings momentum, albeit that requires a turnaround in recent operating statistics

Contact Energy: Turning for Home With the Wind in Its Sales

<ul><li>Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)</li><li>ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying drivers</li><li>Tale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry</li></ul>

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying driversTale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

<ul><li>North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earnings</li><li>Outlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CEN</li><li>Key themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS</li></ul>

North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earningsOutlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CENKey themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

<ul><li>December 2022 another month below pcp, but some positives as well</li><li>1H23 a soft result, made to look worse vs. a record 1H22</li><li>Pulling back FY23 EBITDAF again as there is no sign yet wholesale electricity market conditions are changing in favour of CEN</li></ul>

December 2022 another month below pcp, but some positives as well1H23 a soft result, made to look worse vs. a record 1H22Pulling back FY23 EBITDAF again as there is no sign yet wholesale electricity market conditions are changing in favour of CEN

Contact Energy: Feeling Pain Whilst Awaiting Rain

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

February 2023 was again characterised by high North Island hydro generation, which is good news for Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY), but the...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy: Turning for Home With the Wind in Its Sales

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a 1H23 result well down on 1H22, but in line with expectations; CEN also released a soft January 2023 operating...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

1H23 is all about record North Island hydro generation, powering both Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY) to record half year results; Combined,...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy: Feeling Pain Whilst Awaiting Rain

Contact Energy's (CEN) big challenge is short-term earnings momentum, with wholesale electricity market conditions seemingly conspiring against it;...

Forsyth Barr

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