Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Often, mainstream banks are the last to show a bad loan cycle. It is usually fringe financial companies that are first to show these stresses. This was the case in the Savings and Loan crisis (S&amp;L) decades ago in the US; in the recent subprime loan crisis in the US with consumer finance companies; and even in Thailand ahead of the Baht devaluation, where finance companies and small fringe banks, were first to reveal stresses. This is why we should not be complacent with results and data from money center banks in the US, and why we must be vigilant in following fringe lenders. This is why the 22% QoQ rise in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14444" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14444:1">Synchrony Financial (SYF US)</a>'s late loans by 30 days or more is of particular interest. It is against this backdrop that we remain concerned about the state of the US credit cycle. It is not only SYF either, but also other US specialty finance companies. </p>

Often, mainstream banks are the last to show a bad loan cycle. It is usually fringe financial companies that are first to show these stresses. This was the case in the Savings and Loan crisis (S&amp;L) decades ago in the US; in the recent subprime loan crisis in the US with consumer finance companies; and even in Thailand ahead of the Baht devaluation, where finance companies and small fringe banks, were first to reveal stresses. This is why we should not be complacent with results and data from money center banks in the US, and why we must be vigilant in following fringe lenders. This is why the 22% QoQ rise in Synchrony Financial (SYF US)'s late loans by 30 days or more is of particular interest. It is against this backdrop that we remain concerned about the state of the US credit cycle. It is not only SYF either, but also other US specialty finance companies. 

Synchrony Financial – Surge in Late Loans a Harbinger for Banks?

United States

Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. purchases, sells, and services retail automobile installment sales contracts originated by dealers in the sale of new and used automobiles.  The Company provides indirect financing for franchised dealers, allowing sales to customers who otherwise might not be able to obtain financing from more traditional sources of financing.

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Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS US)

Synchrony Financial – Surge in Late Loans a Harbinger for Banks?

Often, mainstream banks are the last to show a bad loan cycle. It is usually fringe financial companies that are first to show these stresses. This...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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