Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/readytech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29105:1" rel="noopener">ReadyTech Holdings Ltd (RDY AU)</a> confirmed that it received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) at A$4.50 per share, a 38.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>PEP aims to jointly work with Pemba, the largest shareholder with a 32.01% stake, on the proposal. Microequities, the second-largest shareholder, is said to oppose the offer.</li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time price high but struck at a discount to peer multiples, suggesting room for a bump. At last close, the spread to the offer is 8.4%.</li>
</ul>



ReadyTech Holdings Ltd (RDY AU) confirmed that it received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) at A$4.50 per share, a 38.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
PEP aims to jointly work with Pemba, the largest shareholder with a 32.01% stake, on the proposal. Microequities, the second-largest shareholder, is said to oppose the offer.
The offer represents an all-time price high but struck at a discount to peer multiples, suggesting room for a bump. At last close, the spread to the offer is 8.4%.


ReadyTech’s Indicative Offer of A$4.50 from Pacific Equity Partners Good Enough?

US Tech Company Research, MT Capital

MT Capital

US Tech Company Research

I demystify the world's most interesting tech companies, providing in-depth, no-nonsense, un-biased analysis on the most interesting Tech Companies available for investment today. I am a Mechanical Engineer by education, Software Engineer by trade and a self-trained Financial Analyst.

Equity Bottom-Up

Constellation Software / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite not dealing with celestial objects, the company itself is a grouping of vertical market software companies, of which are obtained based upon a set of rigid principles and quantitative standards that I will touch upon in later sections of this report.</li><li>In addition, I would argue that much like constellations (in the astronomical sense of the word) being associated with mythical figures, CSI is directly tied to one of the most elusive, mysterious and fascinating business personalities of our era, Mark Leonard, someone you can see if you look close enough in the night’s sky.  </li><li>Out of all of the publicly traded companies I have written about thus far, CSI stands out amongst the pack.</li></ul>

Despite not dealing with celestial objects, the company itself is a grouping of vertical market software companies, of which are obtained based upon a set of rigid principles and quantitative standards that I will touch upon in later sections of this report.In addition, I would argue that much like constellations (in the astronomical sense of the word) being associated with mythical figures, CSI is directly tied to one of the most elusive, mysterious and fascinating business personalities of our era, Mark Leonard, someone you can see if you look close enough in the night’s sky.  Out of all of the publicly traded companies I have written about thus far, CSI stands out amongst the pack.

Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Canada

Constellation Software Inc is a software holding company.  The Company acquires mission-critical, vertical market software companies, and helps them to grow.

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Constellation Software (CSU CN)

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

ReadyTech’s Indicative Offer of A$4.50 from Pacific Equity Partners Good Enough?

The offer represents an all-time share price high but struck at a discount to peer multiples, suggesting room for a bump. At the last close, the...

Arun George

Constellation Software ($CSU.TO, $CNSWF).

Despite not dealing with celestial objects, the company itself is a grouping of vertical market software companies, of which are obtained based...

MT Capital

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

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