Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> due to the stepwise addition.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) due to the stepwise addition.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-e-s-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2402:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui E&amp;S (7003 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsui-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6553:1" rel="noopener">Matsui Securities (8628 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> will be added at half the planned PAF since the trading value is low compared to the expected index weight.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 1-17 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 1.2-16.5 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Mercari (4385 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP) and Nitori (9843 JP) will replace Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003 JP) and Matsui Securities (8628 JP) in the Nikkei 225.
As expected, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) will be added at half the planned PAF since the trading value is low compared to the expected index weight.
Passive trackers need to buy between 1-17 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 1.2-16.5 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Japan

COMSYS Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Nippon Comsys, Sanwa Elec, and Higashi Nihon System.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and maintains telecommunication and electrical facilities.  Comsys Holdings also manages subsidiaries that operate information processing businesses.

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Comsys Holdings (1721 JP)

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Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

The adds are broadly flat since announcement of the changes. The deletes are higher and short interest has continued to increase. The stocks with...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

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