Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.</li>
<li>The deal has been in the news for a while with CSL recently having to put out a media release to confirm talks.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.
The deal has been in the news for a while with CSL recently having to put out a media release to confirm talks.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


CSL Placement - Lage Acquisition, Placement and Accretion, Along with Index Impact

<ul>
<li>Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group had signed up as a cornerstone.</li>
<li>Ventia is an essential infrastructure services provider in Australia and New Zealand. It is one of the largest providers of maintenance services for critical public and private infrastructure.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group had signed up as a cornerstone.
Ventia is an essential infrastructure services provider in Australia and New Zealand. It is one of the largest providers of maintenance services for critical public and private infrastructure.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

APM Human Services / Equity Capital Markets

APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia. In FY21, APM supported over one million individuals which included 600,000 jobseekers; 180,000 people with disabilities; 100,000 people with mental health needs; 50,000 offenders and ex-offenders; and 30,000 veterans. APM’s main services include: Employment services, Health and Wellbeing, Communities and Assessment and Disability and Aged care support services. Its revenue grew by 49% YoY in FY20 and was up another 28% in FY21 and is expected to grow by 31% in FY22. Its EBITDA and NPATA growth have been even stronger with EBITDA growing at 50%+ each year while NPATA has more than doubled in each of the past two years. Going forward, APM expects its revenue to grow by 31% YoY in FY22, with services margin growing by 27.7% YoY, EBITDA by 26% and NPATA by 20.7% YoY.However, most of the past growth has been driven by M&amp;A and the company hasn’t been very forthcoming with data disclosures. Moreover, both of its largest contracts are due for an overhaul in 2022-23 which could impact its earnings.

APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia. In FY21, APM supported over one million individuals which included 600,000 jobseekers; 180,000 people with disabilities; 100,000 people with mental health needs; 50,000 offenders and ex-offenders; and 30,000 veterans. APM’s main services include: Employment services, Health and Wellbeing, Communities and Assessment and Disability and Aged care support services. Its revenue grew by 49% YoY in FY20 and was up another 28% in FY21 and is expected to grow by 31% in FY22. Its EBITDA and NPATA growth have been even stronger with EBITDA growing at 50%+ each year while NPATA has more than doubled in each of the past two years. Going forward, APM expects its revenue to grow by 31% YoY in FY22, with services margin growing by 27.7% YoY, EBITDA by 26% and NPATA by 20.7% YoY.However, most of the past growth has been driven by M&amp;A and the company hasn’t been very forthcoming with data disclosures. Moreover, both of its largest contracts are due for an overhaul in 2022-23 which could impact its earnings.

APM Human Services IPO - Strong past Growth but Has Ample Unhappy Employees and Clients

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Among active Global managers, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks are the 3rd largest country/sector holding in the Asia region.  Average fund weights sit behind Taiwan Tech and Japan Industrials at 1.07%, with 57.1% of the 380 funds in our analysis invested in the sector with combined AUM of $9.18bn.Measured against other Asian country/sectors, changes in fund ownership have been positive and among the highest across all measures over the last 6-months.  Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, average weights, funds invested, cash flows and the balance of buyers vs sellers were all positive for Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks.  Infact, across most ownership metrics, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks have overtaken, or at least closed to gap to China Consumer Discretionary stocks since the 'Tech Crackdown' in October of 2020.  We can see evidence of this rotation on a fund level, with Aberdeen's Global Unconstrained Fund, LBPAM's Actions Monde and BNY Mellon's Global Opportunities Fund examples of managers rotating from China Consumer Discretionary and into Japan since October 2020.Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 380 active Global strategies with combined AUM of $1.1bn

Among active Global managers, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks are the 3rd largest country/sector holding in the Asia region.  Average fund weights sit behind Taiwan Tech and Japan Industrials at 1.07%, with 57.1% of the 380 funds in our analysis invested in the sector with combined AUM of $9.18bn.Measured against other Asian country/sectors, changes in fund ownership have been positive and among the highest across all measures over the last 6-months.  Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, average weights, funds invested, cash flows and the balance of buyers vs sellers were all positive for Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks.  Infact, across most ownership metrics, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks have overtaken, or at least closed to gap to China Consumer Discretionary stocks since the 'Tech Crackdown' in October of 2020.  We can see evidence of this rotation on a fund level, with Aberdeen's Global Unconstrained Fund, LBPAM's Actions Monde and BNY Mellon's Global Opportunities Fund examples of managers rotating from China Consumer Discretionary and into Japan since October 2020.Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 380 active Global strategies with combined AUM of $1.1bn

Japan Consumer Discretionary:  Benefiting from China's Downfall

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

CSL Placement - Lage Acquisition, Placement and Accretion, Along with Index Impact

CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.

Sumeet Singh

Ventia IPO Trading - Should Pop

Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group has signed up as a cornerstone.

Sumeet Singh

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

APM Human Services IPO - Strong past Growth but Has Ample Unhappy Employees and Clients

APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Consumer Discretionary: Benefiting from China's Downfall

Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, active Global managers have pivoted towards the Japan Consumer...

Steven Holden

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