Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; </li>
<li>Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and </li>
<li>While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   </li>
</ul>


CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; 
Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and 
While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   


Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.</li>
<li>The deal has been in the news for a while with CSL recently having to put out a media release to confirm talks.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.
The deal has been in the news for a while with CSL recently having to put out a media release to confirm talks.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


CSL Placement - Lage Acquisition, Placement and Accretion, Along with Index Impact

<ul>
<li>Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group had signed up as a cornerstone.</li>
<li>Ventia is an essential infrastructure services provider in Australia and New Zealand. It is one of the largest providers of maintenance services for critical public and private infrastructure.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group had signed up as a cornerstone.
Ventia is an essential infrastructure services provider in Australia and New Zealand. It is one of the largest providers of maintenance services for critical public and private infrastructure.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

CBA: CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash result, attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in provision reversals. Despite the result, CBA did...

Thomas J. Monaco

BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

CSL Placement - Lage Acquisition, Placement and Accretion, Along with Index Impact

CSL aims to raise up to US$4.8bn (A$6.8bn) via a fully underwritten placement, in order to partly fund its acquisition of Vifor Pharma.

Sumeet Singh

Ventia IPO Trading - Should Pop

Ventia, an infrastructure services provider, raised around US$325m in its Australian IPO. Capital Group has signed up as a cornerstone.

Sumeet Singh

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

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