Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.</li>
<li>Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%</li>
<li>85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.</li>
</ul>


During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.
Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%
85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.


Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra, Qbe Insurance, Ventia Services.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra, Qbe Insurance, Ventia Services.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Viva Energy Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)</a>'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company</li>
<li>The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company
The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Bank divestment in 1H24 can see gains, capital release, and better focus on life and funds. Improving returns are substantial, into a growing...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas