Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
</ul>


Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).
The S&amp;P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.


DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 3.3%).</li><li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.2% of the index) drove the underperformance, falling 6.0% , while Energy Technology (8.3% of index) was down 5.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 1.9%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: NNOMF, LMRMF, VMC.V, APPH, FIX, AROC, LOOP, KTOS, CUBXF, TPIC</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 3.3%).Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.2% of the index) drove the underperformance, falling 6.0% , while Energy Technology (8.3% of index) was down 5.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 1.9%.Top 10 Performers: NNOMF, LMRMF, VMC.V, APPH, FIX, AROC, LOOP, KTOS, CUBXF, TPIC

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 24, 2023

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>Michael Kantro (@MichaelKantro), Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, put together the “HOPE” roadmap to illustrate the chronology of how and where the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes ripple through and impact the economy.</li><li>The order of the HOPE roadmap dictates that the housing market is the first to slow, followed by new orders, then S&amp;P 500 profits, and last is the employment market.</li><li>The Federal Reserve’s latest increase, the fourth consecutive increase of 75 points, brings the federal funds rate – which acts as a benchmark for everything including business loans, credit card and mortgage rates – to between 3.75% and 4%, the highest level since January 2008.</li></ul>

Michael Kantro (@MichaelKantro), Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, put together the “HOPE” roadmap to illustrate the chronology of how and where the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes ripple through and impact the economy.The order of the HOPE roadmap dictates that the housing market is the first to slow, followed by new orders, then S&amp;P 500 profits, and last is the employment market.The Federal Reserve’s latest increase, the fourth consecutive increase of 75 points, brings the federal funds rate – which acts as a benchmark for everything including business loans, credit card and mortgage rates – to between 3.75% and 4%, the highest level since January 2008.

United States

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system installation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services. The Company's commercial and industrial markets include office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, hotels, manufacturing plants, and government facilities.

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Comfort Systems Usa (FIX US)

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

$DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX $RSP, Dow $DJI, and Russell 2000 $IWM $RTY. $SPX remains bullish as...

Vermilion Research

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 24, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index...

Water Tower Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 11/7

The order of the HOPE roadmap dictates that the housing market is the first to slow, followed by new orders, then S&P 500 profits, and last is the...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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